The latest media-sponsored mayoral poll shows former deputy premier George Smitherman in a statistical tie with Coun. Rob Ford, who has been the frontrunner since Labour Day.
Newstalk 1010 host John Tory announced the results of the Ipsos-Reid poll on Wednesday, which gave Smitherman 31 per cent support to 30 per cent for Ford. "We've got a race on our hands here," he said.
That represents a gain of eight percentage points for Smitherman since the last Ipsos-Reid poll, while Ford is up two points.
The margin of error for the poll is set at plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The poll sampled 400 people. The polling was conducted over the Thanksgiving weekend.
The poll shows the mayoral election is becoming a two-person race.
Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone had 11 per cent support, which is a gain of one percentage point.
Executive Rocco Rossi, a first-time candidate, dropped three points down to three per cent support.
The number of undecided voters was found to be 25 per cent, with less than two weeks until voting day on Oct. 25.
Pollster John Wright of Ipsos-Reid said the poll results shouldn't necessarily be seen as an endorsement of Smitherman. "There's a great proportion of people voting against Rob Ford through Mr. Smitherman as opposed to voting for Mr. Smitherman," he said.
Smitherman tried to paint the results as showing people are seeing the difference between his platform and that of his main opponent.
"Obviously his values and plans for Toronto are very, very different from mine," he said. "We have an optimistic and positive viewpoint that's based on progressive values."
Ford said his team is not worried by this poll. "I'm not worried about any poll. I have said since Day One ... the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day," he said.
In a Nanos Research poll conducted about one month ago for CTV Toronto, CP24 and the Globe and Mail, Ford had the support of 45.8 per cent of decided voters, compared to 21.3 per cent. That poll sampled 1,021 people and was considered to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Since then, Smitherman has tried to paint himself as the natural rallying point for anti-Ford voters. In late September, he got a boost when former candidate Sarah Thomson quit the race and threw her support to Smitherman.
"Take a good look at the choice we have now. It is George Smitherman or Rob Ford," Thomson told CTV Toronto on Sept. 28.
Coun. Joe Mihevc also endorsed Smitherman because he opposed a Ford mayorship.
Mayor David Miller endorsed Pantalone last week, but it doesn't appear to have given Pantalone a significant bounce.
Earlier this week, a number of former Rocco Rossi campaign workers threw their support to Smitherman, but Rossi said they weren't important members of his team.
In a Wednesday news release, Rossi said: "I am obviously disappointed with the results of the latest poll. However, with a quarter of Torontonians still undecided, it is clear that many voters are still unhappy with the two frontrunners."
Rossi then announced at 9 p.m. that he would be ending his mayoral campaign.
Pantalone issued a news release indicated he will release his fiscal plan for the city on Thursday.
Tory, who had been under pressure to join the race himself, said much will depend on whether those who reluctantly support Smitherman show up to vote.
One finding of the new Ipsos Reid poll is that 65 per cent of Smitherman's supporters say they intend to vote. Fifty-seven per cent of Ford's supporters intend to vote.
With a report from CTV Toronto's Naomi Parness