With one week to go, the main mayoral candidates were out Monday trying to drive home key messages following a new poll that essentially shows a two-person battle between Coun. Rob Ford and former deputy premier George Smitherman.

"We want to encourage people to lend support so we can build on the strengths of our city, to get City Hall working better, get the  books balanced, get transportation more effective and create jobs for our people," Smitherman told reporters at one stop on the University of Toronto campus.

Over at the West Mall in Etobicoke, Doug Ford -- Rob's brother and a candidate for city council -- told reporters, "We're going to launch 'Stop The Gravy Train' t-shirts."

Rob Ford added: "People want change. People want someone who's going to be fiscally responsible with their tax dollars. And I'm that person."

According to the Nanos research poll released Sunday, Ford holds a slight lead over Smitherman among decided voters (mid-September poll results in brackets):

  • Ford - 43.9 per cent (45.8 per cent)
  • Smitherman - 40.5 per cent (21.3 per cent)
  • Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone - 15 per cent (16.8 per cent)

The poll was a random telephone survey of 1,000 very likely voters and can be considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The polling took place between Oct. 14 and 16.

Since the September Nanos poll, candidates Sarah Thomson and Rocco Rossi have dropped out. Thomson threw her support to Smitherman, while Rossi declined to endorse anyone.

Pollster Nik Nanos predicted Torontonians will be in for an exciting night on Oct. 25.

"It's going to be a door-to-door, street-to-street, neighbourhood-to-neighbourhood fight for Smitherman and Ford in the last week of the campaign," he said.

Pantalone tried to put a brave face on his third-place showing.

"Election day is there for a reason," he said, surrounded by city councillors who support his bid. "The democratic process chooses a day where the people decide, not the pollsters or whatever."

Ford vs. Smitherman supporters

While their levels of support are comparable, the reasons why those supporters have rallied behind Smitherman and Ford could not be more in contrast.

As one might expect for a candidate campaigning against the sins of the previous government, Ford has rallied supporters who demand a change of direction.

Meanwhile, Smitherman, a former deputy premier, has gathered supporters who are more concerned with electing a qualified candidate than one who represents change.

Of those voting for Ford:

  • 43.3 per cent say they are supporting the candidate who sends a message of change to City Council,
  • 32.4 per cent say they are supporting the best vision for the future
  • 19.6 per cent say they back him because he is the most qualified for the position

Smitherman's supporters have a distinctly different mindset:

  • nearly half (47.6 per cent) say they are voting for him because he is the most qualified to run the city
  • only 10 per cent say they expect him to send a message of change
  • 3.9 per cent say they have chosen Smitherman because of his vision of the future.

As for Pantalone, nearly half (47.5 per cent) of his supporters think he has the best vision for the city, while another 37.7 per cent say they support him because he is the most qualified.

Only 8.2 per cent think the deputy mayor would bring a message of change to City Council.

Base support

While Smitherman has picked up the most support since the last poll, his momentum will have to continue if he is to offset the level of dedication held by those who support Ford.

The poll found that Ford's support base is the most dedicated of the three candidates.

Seventy per cent of those who say they will be voting for Ford consider their support for the Etobicoke city councillor to be firm. Another 13.4 per cent say it is somewhat firm.

Smitherman's supporters are almost as confident in their decision; 64.8 per cent say the are firm in their decision, while 18.8 per cent consider themselves somewhat firm.

Pantalone's supporters appear more willing to change their minds, however. Only 47.5 per cent of his supporters describe themselves as being firmly in his camp.

Another 23.8 per cent of Pantalone's supporters are somewhat firm, leaving more than one-quarter of his supporters considering themselves somewhat or entirely open to changing their mind before election day.

In contrast, only 15.9 per cent of Ford supporters and 15.5 per cent of Smitherman's say they are "somewhat not firm" or "not firm" in their decision, with just eight days before they cast their ballots.

The poll found 18.5 per cent of respondents to be undecided at this point, compared to 25 per cent in the September poll.

Of those undecided voters, 28.6 per cent say they will wait until Election Day to make up their minds, with another 13 per cent saying they will be inside the voting booth before their decision is made.

Broadcaster John Tory, who was runner up in the 2003 civic election, noted that a major mistake at this point could sink a campaign. For that reason, he predicted the remaining debates would be tense. One will be televised Tuesday at 8 p.m. on CP24.

Tory also noted what put current Mayor David Miller over the top against him was when supporters of former mayor Barbara Hall decided at the end to flock to Miller.

"Depending on what happens with Mr. Pantalone's supporters this week, they're more likely to go to Mr. Smitherman, and that could make the difference," Tory said.

With reports from CTV Toronto's Alicia Markson and Naomi Parness