TORONTO - Springtime is synonymous with optimism -- and for good reason. Nature returns from its winter slumber, thick, concealing jackets are tossed aside to reveal skirts and winter gloves are replaced by ball gloves.
And for the first time in recent memory, Toronto Blue Jays fans have every reason to be optimistic about the future -- albeit, not the near future.
The Rogers Centre will likely see its only sellout of the year tonight as the Jays take on the Minnesota Twins in the season opener, but what can fans expect to see the rest of 2011?
CTV's Matthew Coutts and Josh Visser tackle the ten essential questions about the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays.
Was Jose Bautista's monster 54-homer, 124-RBI season a fluke?
Matthew Coutts: It wasn't a fluke. But the only person who might think Bautista will hit that level again would be his mother. He can't repeat his 2010 season, but he could match that of the man he replaced as the face of the franchise. Vernon Wells' output last season (31 homers and 88 RBIs) did not match his swelled contract, but I would set that as the bar for Bautista this season. And I expect he'll easily pass it.
Josh Visser: No. But you can't expect anyone in the post-steroid era to hit 50 home runs, back to back. He'll have another great season, but he won't see as many hittable pitches this year. 100-plus walks though, you can put that in the bank.
Which Blue Jay is posed for a breakout season?
MC: Expect the Jays' starting pitcher one year from now to by Cy Young winning Brandon Morrow. That might be a little farfetched, but Morrow is going to be the silent stud of this young pitching rotation. He topped off an impressive season with a red hot second half, and do you remember his near-no hitter last August? Because I'll never forget it. Ricky Romero deserves to be at the head of this rotation for now, but Morrow will be an assassin when he returns from injury.
JV: Travis Snider and his mustache. If this Kobe-steak eating, tweeting machine manages to stay healthy all year, I think production in the 30 home run, 100-RBI range is possible. If I was a betting man, I would say Snider is the Jays cleanup hitter in 2012, protecting Jose Bautista. Sorry, Adam Lind.
If you have to buy a Jays jersey, whose do you get?
MC: When investing in an authentic jersey, you want to make sure you don't have to buy a new one in a season or two; just ask anyone with A.J. Burnett gear. You also need to pick someone who will continue making a significant contribution to the team. That's why I confidently select general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He's young, has a mass of potential and has made the biggest impact on the franchise over the past year, hands down. When the Blue Jays win the World Series (whenever that is) I want my back to be an Anthopoulos billboard.
JV: When you put another man's number or name on your back, you are really making a statement about what kind of fan you are. Now the secret is to stay away from the populist choices (Bautista, Romero), but pick someone's jersey that you can wear in a few years (I wouldn't put down too much for a Mike McCoy.) That's why I'm going Brett Cecil.
What was the best off-season move by AA?
MC: Full credit goes to packing a minor league system with potential. The future is bright. But Toronto is a demanding city that has recently received only heartbreak from its major sports franchises. The best move he made was resigning Bautista, and not overpaying. Bautista's breakout season garnered attention around the league and, more importantly, had fans buzzing about something other than the Leafs. Cynical Torontonians would have lost all hope had Bautista followed the Raptors' Chris Bosh across the border.
JV: The hiring of John Farrell. Yes, I am saying this before he's managed a single ball game that counts, but he has an approach to baseball I love. Unlike Cito Gaston, he understands what a bullpen is for and can work with pitchers. While the Jays still have oodles of power, Farrell's approach to the basepaths suggests this team won't score more than 50 per cent of its runs on the long-ball like last year. Additionally, his comments at spring training about the depth of the organization's prospects tell me he is taking the long-view approach to winning and will nurture the Jays abundance of up-and-coming talent.
Where will the Jays place in the American (B)East?
MC: Quoting an American poet, the game is the game. In baseball that means that the AL East is stacked and the Blue Jays will fight an uphill battle for another season. The Tampa Bay Rays, last year's division winners, lost key players and are set to slip, but the Red Sox's additions on offensive, compounded by a veteran pitching rotation, mean heartbreak. I optimistically place the Jays third in the East, behind the Sox and the Yankees.
JV: Third -- but well, well away from the playoffs. Boston and New York will battle it out for first, while the depleted Rays, improving Orioles and the Jays will fight for third. While the Rays do have great starting pitching, the destruction of their bullpen and the loss of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena might be too much to bear. Does anyone really expect Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez to turn back the clock a half-dozen years? The Os look better, especially at the plate, but don't have the pitching to compete in the East. The Jays do – if they stay healthy.
What departed Jay is the team going to miss the most?
MC: In the wake of the Roy Halladay loss one season ago, Shaun Marcum stepped in as the "ace" of the rotation. His 13-8 record from last season is misleading; he had career bests in innings pitches (195.1), strikeouts over nine innings (7.6) and walks per nine innings (1.98). And while the Jays rotation is full of exciting pitchers that will help us move on, Shaun will be tearing apart the NL Central. His mountain of wins will have Jays fans asking "Doc who?" one year too late.
JV: Scott Downs. He absolutely destroyed left-handed batters last year, holding them to a .152 BAA. The Jays replaced him with a combination of David Purcey and Marc "Scrabble" Rzepczynski. Considering the amount of left-handed batting prowess in the AL East (especially Boston), this may be a problem.
Who is in for a disappointing season?
MC: I love his swagger, when he's swaggering, and I was the first person to jump on board the bandwagon when he was traded for Alex Gonzalez. But Yunel Escobar isn't going to live up to expectations this season. He's been hot at the plate during spring training, so I could be wrong. But so many Jays are primed for breakout or comeback seasons and they won't all get it done. My gut says Escobar doesn't make the leap.
JV: I want to be optimistic, but I think it might be a rough year for J.P Arencibia. Rookie catchers have notoriously difficult times adjusting to the majors in the best of situations, and the 2010 Pacific Coast League MVP (AAA) is inheriting the Blue Jays young rotation. His bat -- which is supposed to be his strength -- went missing during spring training, but his defence looked better. We'll see.
What minor league call up are you most excited about?
MC: I would be doing a disservice to myself if I didn't say Brett Lawrie. Securing the Canadian prospect cost us Marcum, whose right arm and well-cropped beard will be missed in equal measures. And now that Bautista has been moved back to the outfield, there's a juicy spot at third base where only a (hopefully) capable Edwin Encarnación resides. Lawrie made a post-trade splash by claiming he was ready to play in the majors and, at the very least, I respect that he had the guts to say it. Also, I can't wait to see Anthony Gose run the base paths. But that's a couple years away.
JV: I'm not sure how he gets playing time in a suddenly crowded Jays outfield, but I really like the looks of Eric Thames. He has a combination of speed and power in a OF prospect that the Jays haven't seen since . . . uh, Alex Rios. Stud prospect Lawrie (Canadian!) is going to be up so fast, I won't have time to get excited about it.
Which Blue Jay would you take out for a night on the town?
MC: I struck up a conversation with Casey Janssen early in his first season with the Jays. We were alone in an elevator and, despite thinking I was playing it cool, totally geeked out on him. He took it in stride and smiled off what was likely a rather uncomfortable situation. I could tell he was a sincere, upstanding guy and - … wait; did you ask which Jay I would date?
JV: This is a tough question. I suspect Bautista would make a wonderful dinner companion. I picture him as a younger "The World's Most Interesting Man." We'd discuss 19th-century Russian literature, 1980s hardcore bands and the red-hot Estonian real estate market over Chianti and Argentine beef. For drinks, it's Jon Rauch. He's from Kentucky and at a tattooed 6'11, he must be able to handle his bourbon.
Your GM for a day: What trade do you pursue?
MC: Anthopoulos has built what is essentially a "major league team in waiting" in the minors, loading up on high prospects at key positions. It's hard to propose a major trade until we know how those will shake out. I'm not totally comfortable with Encarnación at third base, but trading for a replacement means putting a road block between Lawrie and the majors. We picked up three respectable and similar relief pitchers over the summer – Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch – and I don't know if we need them all. Our bullpen would still be solid without them all. I'd like to package one of them up with Juan Rivera to upgrade at designated hitter.
JV: Well, the obvious is to get rid of Juan Rivera and his contract for a new batboy. But if I had to make one move it would to find a young starting pitcher who can gobble up 200+ innings. Unfortunately, no one trades those unless you give up a lot in return, and we don't want to do that yet.
Matthew Coutts is a reporter with CTVToronto.ca and plans to attend 40+ Toronto Blue Jays home games in 2011. He once bought a baseball autographed by the 1992 Blue Jays at a garage sale for $5. The autographs are machine stamped. He still has that ball.
Josh Visser is a reporter with CTV.ca who is still mad at his parents for making him go to bed before the end of Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. You'll find him in the 500s or at Opera Bob's for far too many ballgames this year.