Who are the voters in Ontario? Here's the breakdown
There are 124 ridings in Ontario—and each one is made up of a diverse population with key concerns about how the province is governed.
Four years ago, the Progressive Conservatives won a majority with 76 seats in the legislature, or 40.5 per cent of the votes. The Ontario New Democratic Party came a close second with 40 seats (33.6 per cent of the votes) while the Liberals dropped to seven seats. The Green Party won their first ever seat that year.
An analysis of voting data from the 2018 provincial election, conducted by Environics Analytics, shows the Progressive Conservatives were able to solidify their base among small-town and rural empty-nesters, collecting just over 50 per cent of their votes. The Senior Vice President says that number is "a remarkable share in a multi-party system."
"Overall, these segments contain a rock-solid part of the PC base," Rupen Seoni said. "It’s unlikely to see a shift in sentiment here that is large enough to change their PC preference."
According to the data, the PCs were also able to pick up points among the family demographic, which includes a large segment of affluent, single-family-home neighbourhoods closer to city centres.
"The PCs won these voters, with the NDP and Liberals splitting most of the remaining vote evenly in the GTA-oriented 'Big City Burbs' and 'Affluent Families,'" Seoni said.
The "Big City Burbs" population represents just over 12 per cent of voters living in prosperous suburbs of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Seoni added this voter population will be notable as it was a major battleground during the federal election.
"In the last provincial election, they clearly chose the PCs, but there are a lot of federal Liberal votes here, so these are segments that can be moved with the right leaders and policies."
The New Democratic Party, on the other hand, won among young voters, who represented about 15 per cent of ballots cast in 2018. This population encapsulates two distinct groups: Individuals just starting their careers with good education that are primarily located in Toronto neighbourhoods, as well as younger couples and single people with middle incomes living in mid-sized cities outside of the GTA.
"These segments were strong NDP supporters and will probably continue to be, but shifts in vote split will be important to understand changing voter sentiment towards the Liberals and Greens in particular," Seoni said.
During the last provincial election, the PCs and NDP battled it out among newer Canadians—the PCs beat the NDP by under two per cent—and among boomers in both cities and the suburbs. These voter segments could still be in play for June 2, especially among the "New Canadian Mosaic" grouping, who are typically middle to lower-middle income families in the Brampton area and who hold the largest voter segment in Ontario with 15.7 per cent of the ballots.
The map below provides more detail on where each voter segment lives and how they voted back in 2018. Zoom in and click on a riding to learn more.
Environics Analytics and CTV News are both owned by BCE Inc.
Can't see the map? Click here.
View the full-screen version of this interactive map by Esri Canada with Environics Analytics data.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'I just can't believe that it took so long': Body found in wreckage 3 months after deadly fire
A man accused of arson in a January Old Strathcona apartment fire is expected to be charged with manslaughter after a body was discovered in the burned building late last month.
No proof man lied to brother about number of kittens born in litter, B.C. tribunal rules
A man was denied a $5,000 payout from his brother after a B.C. tribunal dismissed his claim disputing how many kittens were born in a litter.
Quebec police hand out hundreds of tickets to Hells Angels and other bikers before 'first run' meeting
Quebec provincial police handed out hundreds of fines to Hells Angels members and other supporting motorcycle clubs who met for their 'first run' in a small town near Sherbrooke, Que.
Feds hope to table foreign interference legislation next week: LeBlanc
Democratic Institutions Minister Dominic LeBlanc says he plans to table legislation this week to help the federal government address foreign interference, but he wouldn't say whether the proposal will include a foreign agent registry.
Auston Matthews skates ahead of Game 7, status unclear with season on the line
Centre Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs hasn't been ruled out of tonight's Game 7 against the Boston Bruins.
Snakes almost on a plane: U.S. TSA discovers a bag with small snakes in passenger's pants
According to an X post by the Transportation Security Administration, officers at the Miami International Airport found the small bag of snakes hidden in a passenger's trousers on April 26 at a checkpoint.
A Chinese driver is praised for helping reduce casualties in a highway collapse that killed 48
A Chinese truck driver was praised in local media Saturday for parking his vehicle across a highway and preventing more cars from tumbling down a slope after a section of the road in the country's mountainous south collapsed and killed at least 48 people.
Russia puts Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on its wanted list
Russia has put Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on its wanted list, Russian state media reported Saturday, citing the interior ministry’s database.
Grandparents killed in wrong-way crash on Hwy. 401 identified
A 60-year-old man and a 55-year-old woman killed in a wrong-way crash on Highway 401 earlier this week have been identified by the Consulate General of India in Toronto.