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Who are the voters in Ontario? Here's the breakdown

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There are 124 ridings in Ontario—and each one is made up of a diverse population with key concerns about how the province is governed.

Four years ago, the Progressive Conservatives won a majority with 76 seats in the legislature, or 40.5 per cent of the votes. The Ontario New Democratic Party came a close second with 40 seats (33.6 per cent of the votes) while the Liberals dropped to seven seats. The Green Party won their first ever seat that year.

An analysis of voting data from the 2018 provincial election, conducted by Environics Analytics, shows the Progressive Conservatives were able to solidify their base among small-town and rural empty-nesters, collecting just over 50 per cent of their votes. The Senior Vice President says that number is "a remarkable share in a multi-party system."

"Overall, these segments contain a rock-solid part of the PC base," Rupen Seoni said. "It’s unlikely to see a shift in sentiment here that is large enough to change their PC preference."

According to the data, the PCs were also able to pick up points among the family demographic, which includes a large segment of affluent, single-family-home neighbourhoods closer to city centres.

"The PCs won these voters, with the NDP and Liberals splitting most of the remaining vote evenly in the GTA-oriented 'Big City Burbs' and 'Affluent Families,'" Seoni said.

The "Big City Burbs" population represents just over 12 per cent of voters living in prosperous suburbs of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Seoni added this voter population will be notable as it was a major battleground during the federal election.

"In the last provincial election, they clearly chose the PCs, but there are a lot of federal Liberal votes here, so these are segments that can be moved with the right leaders and policies."

The New Democratic Party, on the other hand, won among young voters, who represented about 15 per cent of ballots cast in 2018. This population encapsulates two distinct groups: Individuals just starting their careers with good education that are primarily located in Toronto neighbourhoods, as well as younger couples and single people with middle incomes living in mid-sized cities outside of the GTA.

"These segments were strong NDP supporters and will probably continue to be, but shifts in vote split will be important to understand changing voter sentiment towards the Liberals and Greens in particular," Seoni said.

During the last provincial election, the PCs and NDP battled it out among newer Canadians—the PCs beat the NDP by under two per cent—and among boomers in both cities and the suburbs. These voter segments could still be in play for June 2, especially among the "New Canadian Mosaic" grouping, who are typically middle to lower-middle income families in the Brampton area and who hold the largest voter segment in Ontario with 15.7 per cent of the ballots.

The map below provides more detail on where each voter segment lives and how they voted back in 2018. Zoom in and click on a riding to learn more.

Environics Analytics and CTV News are both owned by BCE Inc.

Can't see the map? Click here.


 

View the full-screen version of this interactive map by Esri Canada with Environics Analytics data.

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