TORONTO - Ontario New Democrats have rallied around their leader in the year since she took the helm, but observers say Andrea Horwath's true success lies in winning more seats in the 2011 election.
Horwath, 47, won the leadership on March 7, 2009, amid excitement about her youth, energy and promises to rebuild the struggling party.
A year later, she remains optimistic about party building -- a task that David Docherty, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, says will be her litmus test.
"One of the things she has to do is strategically is say: 'Forget about power, but let's make sure we can win a dozen seats in the next election so that we can put this official party status nonsense to rest once and for all,' " said Docherty.
"If she can do that, that would be a victory."
Twelve seats was the benchmark for official party status in the legislature until 1999, when the NDP was reduced to nine seats in the general election.
The bar was lowered to eight seats by the government, but the New Democrats fell below that threshold in the 2003 contest. It regained status in 2004, when Horwath, the Hamilton-born daughter of an auto worker, won a byelection in her Hamilton Centre riding.
Official status gives a party the right to ask questions in the legislature and ensures funding for its caucus for research.
The party currently has 10 seats.
Howard Hampton led the party through those dark years that saw the NDP hurt badly by strategic voting after the reign of former premier and now federal Liberal MP Bob Rae.
Questions about the New Democrats' viability and relevance have dogged them since.
Yet there were signs of hope for the New Democrats after last month's byelection for Toronto Centre. They nearly doubled their tally from the 2007 general election to 33 per cent of the popular vote for that riding -- pushing the Progressive Conservatives to third place with only 15.4 per cent.
The government held the riding, one the safest Liberal seats in all of Ontario, but Horwath remained upbeat, saying she felt "heartened" by the results.
She cites that byelection as evidence that her focus on on-the-ground organizing and fundraising push has been successful.
"We really had no business getting what we got in the Toronto Centre byelection -- it's a strong, strong Liberal riding, and a riding where we came third last time," Horwath said.
She also considers the party's ability to attract high-profile candidates like street nurse Cathy Crowe proof that she is creating positive momentum and encouraging people to work hard for and support the NDP.
While she's aware that there's a lot more work to do before 2011, Horwath said she already sees a shift happening.
"There is a real sense of energy, there's a real sense of hope and opportunity with party activists, and we're seeing more and more young people coming to our provincial council meetings," she said.
Since Horwath's leadership win the NDP has also emerged as a strong voice of opposition to the Liberal government in the legislature.
Experts attribute their stronger presence in part to a poor performance by the Progressive Conservatives, who elected Tim Hudak as their leader after John Tory repeatedly failed to secure a seat last year.
Hudak has yet to provide any clear policies to show how he would right what he considers so many Liberal wrongs, experts note, adding Horwath is much more flexible on the issues.
"Hudak's positions are very predictable and they stay on a narrow track in terms of the things he's putting out there," said Henry Jacek, a politics expert at McMaster University.
The New Democrats have also zeroed in on health care and pensions -- two key issues that people are concerned about that they've been able to get good traction on, Jacek said.
On pensions, the New Democrats have urged the province to adopt a provincial plan that would give retirees the security of a dependable level of income, and at least hold them over while the federal government ponders calls to expand the Canada Pension Plan.
But, Jacek notes, Horwath has also spent a lot of time attacking the HST, an issue that hasn't really resonated with the public.
Horwath said she's focused on those issues because they are the ones brought to her by the people she's met with throughout the province, and those are problems she will continue trying to solve, even if it is from the opposition benches.
"It's not just about the criticism, but it's also about bringing practical solutions and practical ideas to the table," she said.
"My goal has always been to actually make a difference, and if you bring forward an idea and the government steals it and implements it, that's good, because you've actually made a change."
