Ontario wastewater testing shows 'sustained increase' in COVID-19 rates
Public health officials tracking prevalence of COVID-19 through municipal wastewater testing say they're seeing a "sustained increase" in the viral signal in a variety of locations across Ontario, a sign that the number of cases are on the rise.
The bump comes after the province rolled back mask mandates and other restrictions including capacity limits for many indoor spaces, and was dwarfed by the Omicron wave earlier this year.
But observers say it's too early to know whether to sound the alarm, pointing to measures that are expected to protect Ontario's population, including a high rate of vaccination.
"We are seeing a sustained increase in the signal we are receiving," said Dr. Barry Pakes, the medical health officer for York Region, north of Toronto.
"That’s expected but still concerning," he said.
In the Greater Toronto Area, parts of Toronto, York Region, as well as the cities of Oakville, Milton and Pickering show increases in the viral signal, according to public health dashboards. The signal is determined by testing for signs of COVID-19 that is secreted by infected people.
The viral signal hasn’t changed much in much of Durham Region and Peel Region, the dashboards show. And in Burlington, the signal is going down. The rate of testing varies from once a week to a few times a week, and could be showing a delayed result.
But modelling by Ontario’s Science Advisory Table released last week suggests that the caseload is starting to increase provincewide, with estimates that the increased viral load detected in our water amounts to about 28,000 active cases, doubling in about six days.
"We are definitely in exponential growth. About 50 per cent of the public health units that are testing show exponential growth," said Dr. Peter Juni, the scientific director of Ontario's science table.
Juni pointed to eliminated restrictions on March 1, when the province removed a requirement to be vaccinated and removed capacity limits in most indoor settings.
“The task will be to take it a little bit slow. Keep masking if in doubt, and don’t increase your contacts too much,” Juni said.
Mask mandates were removed on Monday, but it’s likely that those changes haven’t yet been accounted for in the data, said Dr. Eric Arts, a Canada Research Chair in HIV Pathogenesis and Viral Control at Western University.
“I think March Break, coming up, is going to be a telltale sign of how much the wastewater signal will increase and I hope it doesn’t increase a lot, but I suspect that it will,” he said.
Dr. Vinita Dubey, Toronto’s Associate Medical Officer of Health, said the increase is expected after any reduction in restrictions, but it must be kept in perspective.
“As we remove some restrictions Omicron will spread. Now what we do know is that it is a less severe infection especially among those that are vaccinated,” she said.
The regions that are DNA testing their wastewater samples are seeing a new strain gaining ground.
“It is more than 50 per cent BA.2 which is an Omicron variant variant, which is not more dangerous per se, but significantly more transmissible,” Pakes said.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Police arrest 3 Indian nationals in killing of B.C. Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar
Three people have been arrested and charged in the killing of B.C. Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar – as authorities continue investigating potential connections to the Indian government.
Grandparents killed in wrong-way crash on Hwy. 401 identified
A 60-year-old man and a 55-year-old woman killed in a wrong-way crash on Highway 401 earlier this week have been identified by the Consulate General of India in Toronto.
Quebec man who threatened Trudeau, Legault online sentenced to 20 months in jail
A Quebec man who pleaded guilty to threatening Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier François Legault has been sentenced to 20 months in jail.
TD worst-case scenario more likely after drug money laundering allegations: analyst
TD Bank Group could be hit with more severe penalties than previously expected, says a banking analyst after a report that the investigation it faces in the U.S. is tied to laundering illicit fentanyl profits.
Human remains found in rural Sask. possibly a decade old, RCMP say
RCMP say human remains found in a rural area in central Saskatchewan may have been there for a decade or more.
2 charged after police find 'concerning and diverse' explosives at Manitoba home
Winnipeg police say they have arrested two people in their 20s after a large amount of explosives were found in a home outside of Winnipeg, Man.
Canadian doctor concerned new weight-loss drug Wegovy may be used inappropriately
As Wegovy becomes available to Canadians starting Monday, a medical expert is cautioning patients wanting to use the drug to lose weight that no medication is a ''magic bullet,' and the new medication is meant particularly for people who meet certain criteria related to obesity and weight.
Spain abolishes national bullfighting award in cultural shift
Spain scrapped an annual bullfighting award on Friday, prompting a rebuke from conservatives over a backlash against a centuries-old tradition they see as an art form but which has run into growing concern for animal welfare.
Drew Carey is never quitting 'The Price Is Right'
Drew Carey took over as host of 'The Price Is Right' and hopes he’s there for life. 'I'm not going anywhere,' he told 'Entertainment Tonight' of the job he took over from longtime host Bob Barker in 2007.