Liberals and Conservatives 'neck and neck' in race for the GTA, poll finds

TORONTO -

The Liberals and the Conservatives are locked in a tight race to win the Greater Toronto Area as the federal election campaign kicks off, a new poll suggests.

The Forum Research Poll released Monday shows that among decided and leaning voters, 36 per cent would vote Liberal if the election were held today and 35 per cent say they would vote for the Conservatives. The poll found 17 per cent would vote for the NDP, six per cent would vote for the People’s Party of Canada and just three per cent would vote for the Green Party.

The Liberals’ support is strongest among women, those 65 and older, and those who live in the 416 area.

Conservative support is strongest among men, those 55-64 and those who live in the 905.

Support for the NDP is strongest among those who identify as non-binary and younger voters.

The poll randomly sampled 503 eligible voters in the Greater Toronto Area by phone on Aug. 15. The results are considered accurate to within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau triggered the election with a visit to Governor General Mary Simon Sunday and set the election for September 20.

That means the parties have 36 days to convince voters that they are the right choice.

The vote-rich GTA is considered a key battleground. When Canadians last went to the polls in a federal election in 2019, the Liberals won nearly every GTA seat from Whitby to Hamilton.

Speaking with CP24 before the poll was released Monday, political commentator Jim Warren said winning seats in the region will be “key” for the parties.

“Toronto is the place where this is going to be won or lost and could determine who the Prime Minister is,” Warren said. “Of course the other key location is Quebec.”

He said he also expects to see the NDP focusing their attention on Toronto to try pry some seats away from the Liberals.

“I think you'll see (NDP Leader Jagmeet) Singh focus primarily on the urban ridings in Toronto, going after younger voters and trying to pick off some Liberal seats,” Warren said. “And of course, Liberals and Conservatives will be looking to form the next government in the broader GTA, some of the suburban ridings.”

Singh was in in downtown Toronto Monday for his first full day of campaigning.