TORONTO - The battle for Don Valley West is poised to be the marquee showdown of the 2007 Ontario election, which experts say will ultimately be decided by voters in the provincial capital and the suburban enclaves around it.

Toronto and its environs -- known to most as the Greater Toronto Area -- together represent 44 per cent of the seats in the Ontario legislature.

"As Toronto goes, so will go the province of Ontario,'' said Ryerson University politics professor Myer Siemiatycki. "This is where the population concentration is, where the economic heart and engine is running.''

Don Valley West -- a traditionally Conservative stronghold of rich and poor alike, where visible minorities account for 40 per cent of the population -- is also home to the dominant theme of the campaign: public education.

In one corner, incumbent Kathleen Wynne -- a popular Liberal and education minister who's billed as a harbinger of hope for parents, teachers and schoolchildren who endured the cost-cutting and confrontational rhetoric of Mike Harris and his former Conservative government.

In the other corner, John Tory -- the leader of a newly "progressive'' Conservative party who entered the campaign with a lot of support in the city, but will end it as the man who divided the province with his pledge to fund private religious schools.

Wynne, for one, bristles when asked about what it's like to run against a high-profile Conservative leader who's vying to become Ontario's next premier.

"He's running against me. I'm the incumbent,'' she said. "It's a very big hill to climb. It's a big challenge, but I feel very good about it.''

As far as Siemiatycki's concerned, if anyone has an uphill battle, it's Tory.

"I think the Conservatives and Mr. Tory have not gotten the mileage out of the commitment to faith-based school funding that I think they thought would be there,'' he said.

"I think it's clear that proposal, far from being a magnet drawing votes to the Conservatives, has raised a wide range of concerns.''

Facing a massive backlash, both from voters and his own candidates, Tory committed what some consider the political leader's ultimate sin: he changed his mind, offering the Conservative caucus a free vote in the legislature that would almost certainly kill it outright.

But that's not the only thing that could hurt his prospects, Siemiatycki said.

His decision to take on a "talented and capable high-profile woman'' doesn't mesh with his own stated desire to increase the number of women sitting in the Ontario legislature, he suggested.

Tory has been representing the largely rural riding of Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, but vowed early on to run in a riding in his hometown. And while he lives in Toronto Centre -- Liberal Health Minister George Smitherman holds that seat -- Tory has said his roots are in Don Valley West.

"I would not be very surprised if the leader doesn't get a seat because he's up against a capable politician who's already elected and has a base in that riding,'' said University of Toronto political science professor Stephen Clarkson.

"And (she) is the minister for the field which the Liberals have been most successful, namely education.''

While the Conservatives have traditionally been stronger in the outlying 905 region, Clarkson said he doesn't believe the area will necessarily prove a "gold mine'' for the party this time around -- particularly in areas that prefer a more hard-line Conservative approach.

On the other hand, the NDP, which has always done well in Toronto's inner city ridings, could pick up some extra seats, he said.

Both Clarkson and Siemiatycki agreed that the education debate has overshadowed many other issues important to urban voters, such as public transit and municipal funding.

Toronto city council's battle over whether to raise taxes or cut city services has dominated local news for months, but it has barely registered on the campaign trail, even though the city's financial fortunes are tied directly to the province.

Reluctant to criticize the Liberals, who gave the city more autonomy and taxation power and invested heavily in capital projects, Toronto Mayor David Miller said something must be done about municipal funding.

The former Conservative government's decision to download some $140 million worth of operating costs for things like social housing, welfare, public transit, court security and drug benefits, have proven a significant burden, he said.

"What we need now is for the costs that were downloaded on the operating side to be uploaded,'' said Miller, who noted all three parties have agreed to do so.

Next door, however, voters in the 905 belt surrounding the city are feeling left out.

Toronto has received an "inordinate amount of property tax relief'' since it was amalgamated into a single municipality, while "everyone else has been forgotten about,'' said Oshawa Mayor John Gray.

"I think it stems from the fact that we're now a more high-growth area and with growth, there's always delays,'' Gray said.

"The funding has to always catch up and hopefully we can reach that point because there's nothing worse than somebody not being able to get that care closer to home.''

Despite some 1,200 recent job cuts at General Motors -- one of the city's biggest employers -- Gray said both the federal Conservatives and provincial Liberals have really "stepped up to the plate'' to make sure the automotive industry has the tools it needs to remain competitive and innovative.