Forget about those predictions a couple of months ago that the Progressive Conservatives had this provincial election in the bag. Now it's close – very close. Two polls yesterday show much the same thing. The Liberals and the Tories are tied with 24 days to go.

It has some looking carefully at the NDP number that keeps edging up – both polls have the NDP now at 24 per cent. A few are even speculating about a minority government with the NDP holding the balance of power.

But it is too early for that kind of talk – yet. The number that interests me the most in the Nanos poll done for CTV/CP24 and the Globe and Mail is that in the last 10 days the undecided has bounced back to 18 per cent.

When Nanos asked voters which leader they trusted most, 24 per cent said they were "unsure". That is higher than for any of the leaders. And if that is not bad enough if you add in those that say no leader is trustworthy, a full 44 per cent are not happy with the choices before them. The phrase "a pox on all their houses" comes to mind.

There are two ways to look at that 44 per cent number. The probability is that about 44 per cent won't vote in this election.

Remember in 2007 only 53.6 per cent took the time to vote. So the campaigns are fighting over the rest who are out there hoping to change their minds and weigh their options.

Or maybe this is still a campaign waiting for a "ballot question." Something to energize voters and get them focused on the choices and eager to vote.

My bet is that won't happen. A disengaged electorate will make organization and getting out the vote a key to winning. One veteran politico told me modern elections aren't about getting people to tune in to new policies and convince them to vote for one party or the other. Instead he said it's about solidifying the party base and making sure that the committed stay that way.

Today all the leaders are taking a break from the GTA. It's funny how they all choose to do that on the same day!

Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty did hold his media availability in the GTA before heading to Ottawa for his nomination meeting this evening.

Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak is in southwestern Ontario with stops in London, Chatham and Kingsville.

NDP leader Andrea Horwath starts her day in Windsor and crosses paths with Hudak in Chatham. The riding of Chatham-Essex-Kent has been held by Liberal MPP Pat Hoy since 1999 but Hoy isn't running this time so the other parties have their eyes on the riding that gave Hoy a big majority in 2007.

Again today each leader is only doing three public appearances. The election may be up for grabs but the leader tours are conserving their energy. It may be the safe route but I'm not sure it's the best way to get their leader ahead of the 24 per cent who call themselves "unsure."