Ontario's COVID-19 case counts 'flattened' but exponential growth still possible if restrictions lift: modelling
A group of scientists advising the Ford government say that the fourth wave of the pandemic appears to have “flattened” but they are warning that there is “no wiggle room” with new modelling now pointing to an exponential rise in cases should restrictions be lifted prematurely.
The projections, released by Ontario’s Science Advisory Table on Tuesday afternoon, suggest that the rolling seven-day average of new cases is on track to hover under 1,000 through much of October before rising to around 1,500 by by the beginning of November, assuming there is no change in policy or behaviour.
But the projections warn that should Ontario lift most remaining restrictions, a scenario that the scientists concede is unlikely, case counts would likely surpass 5,000 by the end of November.
In a more optimistic scenario, based on a 25 per cent reduction in transmission, case counts would steadily decline and dip down to a few hundred a day by November.
“There is a wide range for case projections, reflecting the fragile situation and high degree of instability as colder weather approaches with more time indoors,” a presentation accompanying the new figures states. “Continued control over case growth requires high vaccination rates in the eligible population, continued public health measures, and a flattening of growth in mobility.”
The last projections released by the science table back on Sept. 1 warned that daily case counts could reach 4,000 a day by October if the province continued along the trajectory it was on then.
But the projections also suggested that Ontario could see case counts begin to decline so long as residents reduced their contacts marginally and the province has, in fact, charted closer to that “best case scenario” with it’s rolling seven-day average now standing at 606, down from 701 on Sept. 1.
In a series of messages posted to Twitter on Tuesday afternoon, the science table said that Ontario is currently “walking a narrow ledge” with case counts increasing in 19 of the province’s 34 health units as well as among the cohort of school-aged children that are not yet eligible to be vaccinated (ages 5 to 11).
The scientists also warned that it is “too early to see the impact of increased contacts with return to school and workplaces,” creating further uncertainty as we head into October.
“The bottom line: we’re doing well for now. But if we want to control cases, hospitalizations and deaths we must increase vaccination rates again and keep current public health measures to limit contacts until many more (& younger) Ontarians are vaxxed,” they said.
Hospitalizations are likely to rise but not rapidly
Hospitalizations in Ontario slowly rose through much of August as the Delta-driven fourth wave of the pandemic unfolded but have been mostly steady for several weeks now.
The modelling released by the science table on Tuesday said that the current trajectory that we are on suggests that there will be a gradual increase in the number of COVID patients in the ICU from 180 as of Monday night to closer to 300 by the end of October.
But it also says that any high risk of a rapid increase in ICU occupancy can be negated “with a cautious approach and early contact reductions.”
In fact, the scientists say that Ontario’s favourable situation compared to some other provinces is likely due to the fact that “we’ve kept enough public health measures in place to keep some control on contacts,” even as businesses reopened and larger gatherings were permitted.
“Today’s modelling further reinforces that as a result of Ontario’s extremely cautious approach, including maintaining strong public health measures such as indoor masking, the province’s public health and health care indicators remain stable or are improving,” a spokesperson for Minister of Health Christine Elliott said in a statement provided to media outlets. “In fact, Ontario continues to report one of the lowest rates of active cases in the country, well below the national average, as we have trended toward the best-case scenario projected in the last modelling.”
More to come...
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Michael Cohen takes the stand as testimony in Trump hush money case enters 4th week
The star prosecution witness in Donald Trump's hush money trial is set to take the stand Monday with testimony that could help shape the outcome of the first criminal case against an American president.
Police release 3D images of young child found in an Ontario river two years ago
Police have released a three-dimensional image of a young child whose remains were discovered in the Grand River in Dunnville, Ont. almost two years ago.
Steve Buscemi punched in the face while walking in N.Y.C.
Hollywood actor Steve Buscemi has been treated for injuries after being punched in the face while walking in New York City.
'Be very, very careful': Wildfire conditions 'still extreme,' says Alberta fire chief
As wildfire conditions remain 'extreme' in northern Alberta, residents are being urged to be extra cautious and follow a fire ban.
Air quality advisories issued in 5 provinces, 1 territory
Air quality advisories are in effect across Western Canada as smoky conditions plague some areas, according to the latest forecasts. Here's where.
Canucks' Zadorov fined $5,000 for post-game crosscheck on Oilers' McDavid
A Vancouver Canucks defenceman has been given the highest possible fine under the NHL's collective bargaining agreement after a scrum broke out at the end of Game 3 against the Edmonton Oilers Sunday night.
Jerry Seinfeld speech prompts pro-Palestinian demonstration at U.S. university graduation ceremony
A tiny contingent of Duke University graduates opposed pro-Israel comedian Jerry Seinfeld speaking at their commencement in North Carolina Sunday, with about 30 of the 7,000 students leaving their seats and chanting "free Palestine" amid a mix of boos and cheers.
Just how bad are ultraprocessed foods? Here are 5 things to know
Many foods fall under the category of ultraprocessed foods, depending on their exact ingredients. This type of food has been studied a lot lately, and the results aren’t great.
Irving Oil former president dies at age 93
Arthur L. Irving, chairman emeritus and former president of Irving Oil, has died at the age of 93.