Ontario on track for good summer despite small risk of fourth wave, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases in Ontario are dropping sharply and while the threat of a fourth wave caused by the delta variant still exists it is unlikely, health officials say.
Officials unveiled updated COVID-19 modelling data on Thursday, which depicts a much better control overthe pandemic in Ontario than in previous updates.
"We've turned the corner in our progress against the pandemic," Science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said. "We can look forward to a much better summer."
According to the modelling, cases should continue to decline for at least the next 10 days in Ontario.
Infections have already declined sharply in almost all public health units over the past few weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also continuedto drop.
If Ontario continues to control COVID-19, the modelling suggests intensive care admissions will drop to below 200 bymid-July and normal hospital operations can resume.
HOW ONTARIO PLANS TO AVOID A FOURTH WAVE
To avoid a fourth wave, officials say Ontario needs to ensure full immunization in high-risk communities with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The delta variant, which is expected to become the province’s dominant strain early this summer, is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the B.1.1.7, or alpha, variant.
Officials say the first dose of aCOVID-19 vaccine is less effective in protecting against the delta variant.
A second dose of the vaccine adds 50 per cent effectiveness, officials said.
"To be clear,we are not out of the woods just yet," Brown said. "Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave and the delta variant, the variant that hit India so hard, is here and is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer but we believe we can control it with the right action."
"This is not a doomsday scenario … We have a really good chance of a good summer."
Ontario announced on Thursday it will begin accelerating second doses for individuals who received their first shot on or before May 9 in seven hot spot areas where the delta variant is a concern.
Individuals in hot spots within Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York public health units will be eligible to book their second Pfizer or Moderna doses through the provincial booking system as of 8 a.m. on June 14.
In a best case scenario, Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.
In a medium scenario, that number could jump back up to nearly 1,000 cases per day by August.
In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.
Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus.
In total, over 10.6 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of Ontarians. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.
Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday the majority of people getting infected with COVID-19 in Ontario are those who haven't received a first dose.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Western University researchers unlock potential 'cure' for ALS
New research out of London, Ont.'s Western University is shedding light on a potential cure for ALS, in which the targeting of the interaction between two proteins can halt or fully reverse the disease's progression.
What Michael Cohen said on the stand in Trump hush money case
The star prosecution witness in Donald Trump's hush money trial took the stand Monday with testimony that could help shape the outcome of the first criminal case against an American president.
Collapsed Baltimore bridge span comes down with a boom after crews set off chain of explosives
Crews conducted a controlled demolition Monday to break down the largest remaining span of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.
Police release 3D images of young child found in an Ontario river two years ago
Police have released a three-dimensional image of a young child whose remains were discovered in the Grand River in Dunnville, Ont. almost two years ago.
Kamala Harris drops F-bomb during White House live-stream
U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris used a profanity on Monday while offering advice to young Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders about how to break through barriers.
Behind the barricades: How protesters spend their first days in a new encampment
Students in Montreal describe life in a newly erected encampment in Montreal as a whirlwind of preparations, from facing rain and a potential police crackdown to setting up a space for the exchange of ideas.
Security video caught admitted serial killer disposing of bodies in Winnipeg garbage bins
Security video caught admitted serial killer Jeremy Skibicki on multiple late-night outings, disposing of body parts in nearby garbage bins and dumpsters in the middle of the night.
Next 48 hours will be 'extremely challenging' for B.C. wildfire crews near Fort Nelson: officials
A wildfire burning dangerously close to Fort Nelson, B.C., has grown to more than 50 square kilometres, and officials are warning that the blaze's behaviour is expected to become more volatile over the next 48 hours.
Southern Ont. man charged with attempted murder in Timmins shooting
One of two men wanted for attempted murder in Timmins has been arrested, while a warrant has been issued for a second suspect, who fled police on foot.