TORONTO - A TD Bank study says Ontario narrowly averted a recession in the first half of 2008, and predicts the province will likely "eke out some slight real GDP growth this year and next."
But the report warns that the margin between economic expansion and contraction in the forecast for Ontario's economy is "razor thin."
TD says the current slowdown will push Ontario closer to the traditional definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth - than at any time since the early 1990s.
But the bank also says a 1990s style economic downturn in Ontario "is almost inconceivable."
The report says Ontario's job market is starting to succumb to pressures from outside the province, and notes 90 per cent of the total new jobs recorded in the past year were either in government or construction.
Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory is worried Ontario's budget plan is off by hundreds of millions of dollars, and he is again demanding an economic update from the Liberal government.
"Ontarians deserve to know the true state of their government's finances, how far off plan are they, what impact is that having on their plans and programs, and how are they planning to adjust for these changes," Tory said.
