Ontario on track for good summer despite small risk of fourth wave, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases in Ontario are dropping sharply and while the threat of a fourth wave caused by the delta variant still exists it is unlikely, health officials say.
Officials unveiled updated COVID-19 modelling data on Thursday, which depicts a much better control overthe pandemic in Ontario than in previous updates.
"We've turned the corner in our progress against the pandemic," Science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said. "We can look forward to a much better summer."
According to the modelling, cases should continue to decline for at least the next 10 days in Ontario.
Infections have already declined sharply in almost all public health units over the past few weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also continuedto drop.
If Ontario continues to control COVID-19, the modelling suggests intensive care admissions will drop to below 200 bymid-July and normal hospital operations can resume.
HOW ONTARIO PLANS TO AVOID A FOURTH WAVE
To avoid a fourth wave, officials say Ontario needs to ensure full immunization in high-risk communities with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The delta variant, which is expected to become the province’s dominant strain early this summer, is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the B.1.1.7, or alpha, variant.
Officials say the first dose of aCOVID-19 vaccine is less effective in protecting against the delta variant.
A second dose of the vaccine adds 50 per cent effectiveness, officials said.
"To be clear,we are not out of the woods just yet," Brown said. "Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave and the delta variant, the variant that hit India so hard, is here and is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer but we believe we can control it with the right action."
"This is not a doomsday scenario … We have a really good chance of a good summer."
Ontario announced on Thursday it will begin accelerating second doses for individuals who received their first shot on or before May 9 in seven hot spot areas where the delta variant is a concern.
Individuals in hot spots within Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York public health units will be eligible to book their second Pfizer or Moderna doses through the provincial booking system as of 8 a.m. on June 14.
In a best case scenario, Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.
In a medium scenario, that number could jump back up to nearly 1,000 cases per day by August.
In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.
Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus.
In total, over 10.6 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of Ontarians. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.
Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday the majority of people getting infected with COVID-19 in Ontario are those who haven't received a first dose.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING Alice Munro, Nobel literature winner revered as short story master, dead at 92
Nobel laureate Alice Munro, the Canadian literary giant who became one of the world’s most esteemed contemporary authors and one of history's most honoured short story writers, has died at age 92.
Latest updates on air quality alerts, and when the smoke may reach Ontario and Quebec
Wildfires have led Environment Canada to issue air quality advisories for parts of B.C., Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories, as forecasters warn the smoke could drift farther east.
Are these Canada's best restaurants? Annual top 100 list revealed
The annual list of Canada's top restaurants in the country was just released and here are the places that made the 2024 cut.
Attack on prison van in France kills 2 officers, inmate escapes
Armed assailants killed two French prison officers and seriously wounded three others in an attack on a convoy in Normandy on Tuesday and an inmate escaped, officials said.
Steal a car, lose your driver's licence for 10 years under new Ontario proposal
Repeat car thieves may face lengthy licence bans under proposed changes to Ontario’s Highway Traffic Act.
B.C. brings in law on name changes on day that child killer's new identity revealed
The BC NDP have tabled legislation aimed at stopping people who have committed certain heinous acts from changing their names.
Manitoba premier to visit areas impacted by wildfire
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew will get a close-up look at the devastation from a large wildfire burning in northern Manitoba Tuesday.
Significant police presence as Israeli flag flies at Ottawa City Hall
The Israeli flag is flying at Ottawa City Hall today to mark the country's national day, with plans to hold a private ceremony to mark Israel's Independence Day. There is a significant police presence at City Hall, including security barriers outside the main doors.
Hot history: Tree rings show that last northern summer was the warmest since year 1
The broiling summer of 2023 was the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere in more than 2,000 years, a new study found.