Green party missed referendum opportunity

TORONTO - For a party that, by most accounts, has little hope of winning a seat in the Ontario legislature on Wednesday, experts say the Green party has missed an opportunity to capitalize on the pending referendum on electoral reform.

Early on in the campaign, Leader Frank de Jong admitted the "best-case scenario'' for his party come Oct. 10 would be a minority government for one of the mainstream parties and a referendum win for a proposed new electoral system: mixed member proportional representation, or MMP.

He suggested it would lead to another election within two years and that under the new electoral system, the Greens would likely end up with about 10 seats.

With the latest polls showing a Liberal majority and a referendum loss, it appears de Jong - a 51-year-old elementary school music teacher with a penchant for singing opera - isn't going to get his wish.

McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe attributed it, at least in part, to one fatal error: running a "typical campaign'' instead of focusing on electoral reform, something the Greens have been pushing since they arrived in Canada in the early 1980s.

"I think if the Greens have made a mistake in this campaign, it's that they haven't really just made it a campaign about the referendum,'' he said.

"It seems to me if they're ever going to elect someone, it's going to be through a new election system.''

De Jong, the party's part-time Ontario leader since 1993, said he supports MMP because he believes it will "improve politics in Ontario,'' not because it could increase his party's chances. In fact, he said, he's confident the party can get elected without it.

"It's not the responsibility of a political party to define the rules. That would be the fox in charge of the hen house,'' de Jong said.

"We will let the referendum decide the electoral system, but the Green party's job remains exactly the same, and that (is) to run the best candidates and the strongest campaigns and get elected in any case.''

Chief electoral officer John Hollins said it's probably a good thing the Greens mounted a mainstream campaign, since the leaders are strictly forbidden from actively urging voters to choose sides in the referendum.

"What they cannot do is they cannot be out there promoting,'' Hollins said.

"They can tell you their position and say why and qualify their position, but they can't be directing people to vote for one side or the other.''

Without MMP, the future viability of the party will also depend on its ability to organize, Graefe said.

Though it's gone beyond fringe party status, Graefe suggested the Greens are still a splintered group of activists that have no real base in their communities.

"If they were to become a more significant party, they would actually have to organize and make linkages with different parts of their communities,'' he said.

Be it ties with the labour movement, members of the business community or even grassroots organizations like a group of folks who live beside a coal plant, such relationships are crucial, Graefe said.

Despite a few setbacks, de Jong said he believes his party has made major strides this time out.

Much like his Liberal, Conservative and NDP rivals - albeit with a much smaller budget and thinner media entourage _ de Jong spent the last month travelling the province in a vegetable oil-powered car promoting his party's platform and trying to woo support.

De Jong is pretty sure he's swayed a few voters on his proposals to shift the tax burden to pollutants rather than income and to compensate farmers for ecological services. He believes the Greens have also bolstered support among various interest groups.

Jack MacLaren of the Ontario Landowners Association said the lobby group intends to vote for candidates that support their position on two issues: compensating landowners for protecting the environment at the expense of their property rights and allowing municipalities to de-amalgamate.

"What we have found at the Ontario Landowners Association is we have more common ground with the Green party than we have areas of disagreement,'' he said.

"Several of the Green people I met I just find to be good folks.''

De Jong is particularly confident his unique proposal to scrap the Catholic board in exchange for one public school system is resonating with voters.

"We have a position on Catholic education that is the most popular position in the province and it's only the Green party that holds that position,'' he said.

He believes it's a big part of why Green candidate Shane Jolley is expected to give Conservative incumbent Bill Murdoch a scare in the southwestern Ontario riding of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.

With recent polls suggesting he's running a close second behind Murdoch, a long-time "maverick'' politician, Jolley now holds the best chance to give the Greens their first win ever.

"I think Bill has represented the community well in the last few years, but it's time for a change,'' said de Jong, who spent the final days of his campaign in Owen Sound rooting for Jolley, a married father of three who sells organic and sweatshop-free clothing out of an "alternative'' bicycle shop.

"They share a lot, I think, in personality and in rootedness in the community and in dedication . . . I think the reality of the next decade means we need a Green Bill Murdoch in there and that's Shane Jolley.''

While pundits insist Jolley isn't likely to beat the popular incumbent, the Greens believe Murdoch has lost favour over religious school funding.

Even before Tory himself sought to douse the flames of discontent by agreeing to hold a free vote in the legislature on the controversial subject, Murdoch came out against it when he realized how many of his constituents were opposed.

But the Greens say his flip-flop had more to do with a fear he may lose to Jolley and believe voters will view it as little more than an attempt to do anything to get re-elected.

As for his own downtown Toronto riding of Davenport, where he's attended three debates but spent a mere day-and-a-half campaigning, de Jong admits unseating Liberal incumbent Tony Ruprecht will be tough.

"We are running to win in all the ridings and doing our best in every riding,'' he said, noting "politics is of course the art of the achievable and we're really rooting for the strongest campaigns.''

Should he be shut out of elected politics yet again, de Jong has vowed to work with elected colleagues from outside and remain on as party leader for as long as party members wish to keep him.