Toronto on track to have its driest fall since 1964

People use the cycle path system as warm fall weather continues in Calgary, Alta. on Sept. 29, 2021. Climatologists and meteorologists are calling for another mild fall this year. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

Toronto has seen considerably less rain and snow than normal over the last few months as it heads towards being the driest fall since 1964.

According to David Phillips, Senior Climatologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada, precipitation was less than half what it normally is since September. That could be due to a particularly wet summer, or, just happenstance.

• Download our app to get local alerts on your device
• Get the latest local updates right to your inbox

“It’s a curiosity,” Phillips said in an interview with CTV News Toronto. “And we always like to have weather [be] normal, but it doesn’t always behave that way.”

Normally, there would be about 200 millimeters of precipitation – rain or snow – in the fall. This year, there’s been about 105.8 millimeters.

While the first day of winter isn’t until Dec. 21, getting a considerable amount of more rain is unlikely.

“I think it’s not a big deal in the sense that we had a wet summer,” Phillips said. “And so therefore the problem is if this was dry on top of dry and heading dry, the impacts for growers and farmers and gardeners and just horticulturalists – people who just like the ground to not be cracked green or what have you – there’d be more of an impact on that.”

After an unpredictable summer, Environment Canada predicts a warmer fall this year.

In the summer, there was a 20 per cent increase in the amount of rain that Toronto normally gets. Because of that, levels of precipitation has been fairly close to normal overall this year, and farmers “aren’t necessarily worried” about their crops.

However, Phillips suggested watering trees when getting the chance. While he suspects a mild winter ahead, he noted that the trees would still benefit from a “nice drink of water.”

“The trees are probably screaming right now, ‘we want some rain,’” he said. “They want some precipitation, they want some and so people should, the simple minded thing, is to water those trees on their property but also public trees away from their property line.

“So that going into the winter, trees really need a good drink of water to be able to withstand the kind of horrors that winter brings.”

Phillips said that there’s no indication that the winter will be dry just because this fall has been. Instead, he said that if the situation continues, the impacts will become more problematic. 

Environment Canada is predicting little precipitation over the next week, aside from Sunday when there will be a 30 per cent chance of rain, and a forecasted high of 5 C. Temperatures are expected to remain relatively high into early next week, with a high of 8 C Friday, and a low of 3C next Monday and Tuesday.