Ontario's COVID-19 case counts expected to remain stable as long as public health measures are not lifted
Ontario's daily COVID-19 case counts are expected to remain stable over the next month despite an increase in social contacts, newly released modelling shows, but only if public health measures are not lifted.
The new data was released by the province's Science Advisory Table late Friday morning.
In the presentation, officials say that COVID-19 cases are declining in most public health units across Ontario as a result of vaccinations and continued public health measures.
The modelling suggests that even with "some increase in contacts between individuals," Ontario could see about 500 new COVID-19 cases a day in November. That number increases to a little over 600 daily infections with a "substantial increase in contacts."
Officials did not specify what a substantial increase in contacts means, but noted that even in that scenario, occupancy in Ontario's intensive care units would remain stable with fewer than 200 patients.
The modelling banks on public health measures—such as masking, vaccine certificates, symptom screening and ventilation—remaining in place. Officials warn that in Nordic countries that have lifted public health measures, there was an increase in daily infections.
"Lifting public health measures can drive a new wave, even with strong vaccine coverage," the modelling says.
If Ontarians do not change their social behavior, do not increase their contacts and there is no change in public health measures, the daily COVID-19 case count could drop to about 200.
New modelling data was released by Ontario's COVID-19 Science Table on Oct. 22, 2021.
In general, director of the science table Peter Jüni said the modelling is "really, really great news" but warned the data could still fluctuate.
"The point is, you know since roughly the 23rd of July or so our mobility is stable and this is correlated with people's behavior with their contacts and during the same time what we saw is that 2.5 million people got fully vaccinated. This gives us quite a lot of protection," he told CP24 after the modellilng was released.
"But we continue to be in a wobbly balance and we need to be aware of that."
On Friday, Premier Doug Ford announced that the province would lift capacity limits in restaurants, fitness centres, casinos and a number of other non-essential indoor settings that require proof of vaccination starting Monday and outlined a plan for the loosening of further restrictions into 2022.
The province has already lifted capacity restrictions in select venues for large sporting events and concerts.
Jüni says the province won't know the true impact of easing that public health restriction for another week.
"We need these three-week gaps between steps that we're doing to understand what the impact is."
The last time officials presented COVID-19 modelling data was in early September, when they said the province was facing a "substantial" fourth wave that could see October's daily case counts reach 9,000 in the worst-case scenario.
WHAT'S NEXT FOR ONTARIO'S VACCINATION PLAN?
The science table says that unvaccinated individuals have a seven-fold higher risk of contracting symptomatic COVID-19 than someone who has received both doses. They also have a 17-fold higher risk of being hospitalized and a 23-fold higher risk of being admitted into intensive care compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
Currently, only people aged 12 and up are eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, but with news that Pfizer-BioNTech has asked Health Canada to review doses for children aged five to 11 years old, public health units are starting to develop their own campaigns to encourage vaccination in that demographic.
The science table, for its part, suggests public health units adopt "smart, tailored strategies" to "set the course for a strong immunization program in children."
This includes hosting clinics at schools or other familiar locations for children, encouraging healthcare providers to engage with parents and kids, ensure reminders for second doses and create information campaigns within the community.
"Information is not enough and the source matters," the modelling suggests.
Officials also warn against a "one-size-fits-all" approach and to take special consideration for reaching racialized communities.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Orca calf that was trapped in B.C. lagoon for weeks swims free
An orca whale calf that has been stranded in a B.C. lagoon for weeks after her pregnant mother died swam out on her own early Friday morning.
King Charles' cancer treatment progressing well, says Buckingham Palace
King Charles III’s doctors are 'sufficiently pleased' with his cancer treatment and he is expected to return to public-facing duties, Buckingham Palace announced on Friday.
AFN chief says Air Canada offered a 15% discount after her headdress was mishandled
After the Assembly of First Nations' national chief complained to Air Canada about how staffers treated her and her ceremonial headdress on a flight this week, she says the airline responded by offering a 15 per cent discount on her next flight.
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau on navigating post-political life, co-parenting and freedom
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau says there is 'still so much love' between her and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they navigate their post-separation relationship co-parenting their three children.
DEVELOPING Bird flu outbreaks: WHO weighs in on public health risk
The current overall public health risk posed by the H5N1 bird flu virus is low, the World Health Organization said on Friday, but urged countries to stay alert for cases of animal-to-human transmission.
76ers All-Star centre Joel Embiid says he has Bell's palsy
Philadelphia 76ers All-Star centre Joel Embiid has been diagnosed with Bell’s palsy, a form of facial paralysis he says has affected him since before the play-in tournament.
Island near Mull of Kintyre for sale for US$3.1 million
An idyllic 453-acre private island is up for sale off the west coast of Scotland and it comes with sandy beaches, puffins galore, seven houses, a pub, a helipad and a flock of black-faced sheep.
Regina police officer injured after being accidentally shot by fellow officer's gun
An investigation is underway after a Regina police officer was accidentally shot by a fellow officer’s gun during the search of a house early Friday morning.
Taylor Swift dons Montreal designer's dress in 'Fortnight' video
A pair of Montreal designers' work has now been viewed over 41 million times. Taylor Swift dons a Victorian throwback black gown in her latest music video, 'Fortnight', designed by UNTTLD due Simon Belanger and Jose Manuel Saint-Jacques.