Ontario on track for good summer despite small risk of fourth wave, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases in Ontario are dropping sharply and while the threat of a fourth wave caused by the delta variant still exists it is unlikely, health officials say.
Officials unveiled updated COVID-19 modelling data on Thursday, which depicts a much better control overthe pandemic in Ontario than in previous updates.
"We've turned the corner in our progress against the pandemic," Science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said. "We can look forward to a much better summer."
According to the modelling, cases should continue to decline for at least the next 10 days in Ontario.
Infections have already declined sharply in almost all public health units over the past few weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also continuedto drop.
If Ontario continues to control COVID-19, the modelling suggests intensive care admissions will drop to below 200 bymid-July and normal hospital operations can resume.
HOW ONTARIO PLANS TO AVOID A FOURTH WAVE
To avoid a fourth wave, officials say Ontario needs to ensure full immunization in high-risk communities with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The delta variant, which is expected to become the province’s dominant strain early this summer, is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the B.1.1.7, or alpha, variant.
Officials say the first dose of aCOVID-19 vaccine is less effective in protecting against the delta variant.
A second dose of the vaccine adds 50 per cent effectiveness, officials said.
"To be clear,we are not out of the woods just yet," Brown said. "Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave and the delta variant, the variant that hit India so hard, is here and is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer but we believe we can control it with the right action."
"This is not a doomsday scenario … We have a really good chance of a good summer."
Ontario announced on Thursday it will begin accelerating second doses for individuals who received their first shot on or before May 9 in seven hot spot areas where the delta variant is a concern.
Individuals in hot spots within Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York public health units will be eligible to book their second Pfizer or Moderna doses through the provincial booking system as of 8 a.m. on June 14.
In a best case scenario, Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.
In a medium scenario, that number could jump back up to nearly 1,000 cases per day by August.
In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.
Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus.
In total, over 10.6 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of Ontarians. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.
Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday the majority of people getting infected with COVID-19 in Ontario are those who haven't received a first dose.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Here's how much more Canadian landlords are asking for now, according to a just-released report
A new report says the average asking rent for a home in Canada in April was up 9.3 per cent compared with a year ago, while a slight month-over-month increase was also recorded for the first time since January.
What is basic income, and how would it impact me?
Parliamentarians are considering a pair of bills aiming to lift people out of poverty through a basic income program, but some fear these types of systems could result in more taxes for Canadians who are already financially struggling.
Canada abstains from Palestinian UN membership vote but supports two-state solution
Canada was one of 25 countries that abstained from a United Nations vote on Palestinian membership that passed with overwhelming support on Friday.
'I may have some nightmares:' Man survives being bitten by 2 sharks in Bahamas
A man who was bitten by two sharks in the Bahamas said Thursday he's 'thankful that I'm here' while sharing his story of survival.
Mexico's president accuses press and volunteer searchers for missing people of 'necrophilia'
The administration of Mexico's president has accused the press and volunteer searchers who look for the bodies of missing people of 'necrophilia,' comments that drew criticism this week.
Rare severe solar storm Friday could bring spectacular aurora light show across Canada
A rare and severe solar storm is expected to bring spectacular displays of the northern lights, also known as aurora borealis, across much of Canada and parts of the United States on Friday night.
Out-of-control wildfire burning near Fort McMurray
As of 9 a.m. on Friday, the wildfire burning 28 kilometres southwest of the northeastern Alberta city was 25 hectares in size.
Magnitude 4.2 earthquake reported off Vancouver Island's west coast
A 4.2-magnitude earthquake was recorded west of Vancouver Island early Friday morning.
WATCH Expecting an interest rate cut in June? Don't bet on it after new jobs data
Canada's labour market rebounded in April, adding more than 90,000 jobs, a staggering number of new positions after four consecutive months of little change.