One day before Toronto byelection, Olivia Chow maintains polling lead

Olivia Chow would be elected as mayor of Toronto if the byelection was held today, according to two new polls released on Sunday, the day before Torontonians head to the ballot box.

Polls by Forum Research and Mainstreet Research found that Chow remains the front-runner in the mayoral race, but a previously commanding lead has dwindled down to single digits.

Chow, who has been leading in all mayoral polls, remained the top choice for 34 per cent of decided voters surveyed in Mainstreet’s poll, and 29 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Forum’s poll.

Nine points behind her is Ana Bailao, who polled at 25 per cent according to Mainstreet and 20 per cent according to Forum. She has seen a bump in her numbers since former mayor John Tory endorsed her last Wednesday.

Quito Maggi, head of Mainstreet Research, told CP24 on Friday that while catching up with Chow was a long shot at this point of the campaign, Bailao was the only candidate who could do it.

“This is Chow’s third drop of three per cent in support in the last three weeks. This suggests she has been hemorrhaging approximately 0.5 per cent support each day for the last three weeks,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research in a press release on Sunday.

“While Bailao’s surge will likely be too little, too late, it does represent the biggest one week gain for any candidate in the campaign and has clearly cemented Bailao’s position in second place. One wonders what would have happened if endorsements for Bailao had occurred a week earlier in the campaign.”

In third place in both polls is Mark Saunders, with 11 per cent support from decided voters in Mainstreet’s poll. Like Bailao, Saunders received a high-profile endorsement last week from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who said he would vote for Saunders on Monday. The provincial leader even lent his voice to a robocall, urging voters to unite behind Saunders. Yet, the premier’s support hasn’t appeared to move Saunders’s numbers in the polls.

He is polling slightly higher according to Forum’s latest survey, in which he was favoured by 15 per cent of decided and leaning voters, however that number has not changed since Forum’s previous poll on June 16.

Closely behind Saunders is Anthony Furey at 10 per cent, according to Mainstreet, and 11 per cent according to Forum.

Furey had been steadily gaining momentum in Forum’s weekly polls for the previous month, but saw a drop in support of two percentage points in this week’s poll compared to last week’s; the biggest drop among major candidates besides Chow.

Josh Matlow finished fourth with seven per cent support according to Mainstreet and eight per cent support according to Forum.

Rounding out the top five is Mitzie Hunter, who garnered five per cent support in both polls.

Chloe Brown has two per cent support, while Brad Bradford received one per cent, according to Mainstreet. Bradford was polling slightly higher in Forum’s latest poll, with three per cent support among decided and leaning voters.

Forum’s poll also found that nine per cent of voters will be voting for someone outside the top-seven, and 12 per cent of voters remain undecided ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet Research conducted a survey of 940 Toronto adults on June 24. It was done using automated telephone interviews.

The margin of error is +/- 3.2 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.

Forum’s poll was conducted by Forum Research on June 23, with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,037 randomly selected Toronto residents over the age of 18, 73 per cent by cellphone and 27 per cent on landlines.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate.