Toronto is on track for one of its lowest pedestrian fatality totals in years. Is Vision Zero starting to work?

Toronto is on track to see one of its lowest totals for pedestrian fatalities in more than a decade, providing a glimmer of hope that the tens of millions of dollars that have been poured into the city’s Vision Zero strategy are starting to result in meaningful change.

There have been a total of 50 people who have died on Toronto streets so far in 2022, including 22 pedestrians and one cyclist.

It’s still an alarmingly high number and one that speaks to the need for further investments, most road safety advocates contend.

But if it holds it will also be the lowest number of pedestrian fatalities on city streets in about 11 years, outside of 2020 when traffic volumes plunged.

In fact, over the five years leading up to the pandemic Toronto saw an average of 40 pedestrian deaths each year, nearly double this year’s tally.

Meanwhile, serious injuries are also down, with the data suggesting that 77 pedestrians have been seriously injured in collisions so far in 2022 compared to 88 in 2021 and 140 as recently as 2019.

Could the recent downturn be a sign that the city’s much publicized Vision Zero strategy is starting to work?

“I sure hope so,” Coun. Jennifer McKelvie, who chairs the city’s infrastructure and environment committee, told CP24.com when asked that question last week. “There were some structural difference across the city but we are finally starting to make those investments. In Scarborough, for example, we have six or seven lanes that pedestrians need to navigate and we often have long distances between signalized crossings but we are starting to put in more signalized crossings so you don’t need to jaywalk and there are more crossings that are available as well.”

The city’s Vision Zero strategy was first launched in 2016, which was a particularly brutal year that saw 78 people die on city streets, including 44 pedestrians and one cyclist.

Since then the city has poured $269 million into the program, including $64 million in 2022.

The money has, in turn, paid for a myriad of initiatives ranging from automated speed enforcement cameras to separated bike lanes and more than 1,000 new advanced walk signals for pedestrians.

It has also allowed the city to implement a host of so-called traffic-calming initiatives, like speed bumps, raised crosswalks, and in-road signage warning drivers to slow down.

Speaking with CP24.com, McKelvie said that the city has taken a largely “data-driven” approach to the program so far, directing more resources to intersections where there has been a higher volume of collisions historically.

While there have been political challenges at times, McKlevie said that coming out of the pandemic there appears to be a “bigger appetite” for some Vision Zero improvements because of the perspective that many Torontonians gained about traffic safety in their neighbourhoods while spending more time at home.

She said that she believes “that is also being reflected in drivers slowing down themselves,” which could be contributing to a reduction in fatal collisions.

However, some road safety advocates question whether the program is actually behind the decline, given that it has largely coincided with reduced traffic volumes during COVID-19.

They say that while the strategy has led to needed infrastructure improvements in some neighbourhoods, it’s done little to make pedestrians safer in the inner suburbs where higher speed limits and wide arterial roads are still the norm.

“It all boils down to political will, as all of Vision Zero does,” Jessica Spieker, who is with the group Friends and Families for Safe Streets, told CP24.com last week. “In areas that are more car-centric, there is still a lot of resistance to any tiny change that reallocates space away from cars or slows down drivers. There is a complete street proposed for part of Steeles (Avenue) and part of Sheppard (Avenue) and the progress on these things is just so incredibly slow. This could be done so much more quickly and by taking a long time to do it we are guaranteeing that more people will die.”

Advocates say more sweeping changes needed

Spieker has a personal connection to road safety, having been hit by an SUV while biking on Bathurst Street north of Eglinton Avenue in 2015.

The collision broke her spine and left her “physically mangled” with a large blood clot in her leg, she said.

Since then, Spieker believes that there has been a change in the discourse with more people “understanding that road safety is a crisis” in recent years.

But she said that policymakers need to approach the issue with more “urgency” and begin to actually redesign streets with pedestrians and cyclists in mind, as was done with a portion of Danforth Avenue during the pandemic.

The city is also planning a similar redesign of Yonge Street between Carlton and Queen streets.

“I don't know why they couldn't just do that on Lawrence or St. Clair or Midland (Avenues). Like, you can put that infrastructure down virtually overnight. I don't think it's that laborious to design,” Spieker said. “Most of those roads have two or three extremely wide lanes. If those wide lanes were narrowed a bit you'd make lots of room for protected lanes for active transportation and that can be done so quickly using prefabricated materials. Nothing needs to get dug up. Nobody dug up anything on University Avenue (when protected bike lanes were installed). They just bolted down some flexi posts and it turned out to be pretty decent.”

Tory says strategy is ‘saving lives’

Vision Zero is a lauded global strategy with the goal of zero traffic-related deaths and injuries but it’s often been criticized locally due to a lack of measurable results.

In a statement provided to CP24.com, Mayor John Tory said the number of fatalities and pedestrian deaths in 2022, while far from zero, does show the strategy is working and the investments made in road redesign, speed cameras and speed limit reductions “are keeping people safer and saving lives.”

There were 60 traffic fatalities in 2021, including 27 pedestrians.

“We know the changes we are making are having an impact but no matter what, I am determined to make sure this road safety work continues,” Tory said.

In his statement, Tory said that the city has already reduced speed limits on more than 500 kilometres of roadways as part of Vision Zero and will be continuing that work in the New Year.

He also said that the city has plans to add 25 more speed enforcement cameras to its fleet in 2023, bringing the total number to 75.

In an interview with CP24.com, Matti Siemiatycki, who is the Director of the Infrastructure Institute at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities, said that there are indications that some of the interventions associated with Vision Zero are “starting to make an impact.”

But he said that while the number of road deaths “appear to have inched down, we are not at zero” and will need to make “really significant changes” to actually get there.

“The initial phase has been these quick interventions and the next phase is really hard work. It’s redesigning streets and changing speed limits and for a variety of reasons those are challenging,” he said. “I think we also have to acknowledge that there's a geography to where many of the fatal crashes are and it is often in the inner suburbs, where the roads have been designed essentially like mini freeways and are intended to give you the visual cues and the space to go really quickly. To change the design of those streets is a major intervention and it is also a political intervention.”