This is what Ontario's hospitals would look like if everyone was vaccinated
The head of Ontario’s science table has revealed what the province’s health-care system would look like if everyone had at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
“The health-care system would not be overwhelmed or at the brink of being overwhelmed if we had a fully vaccinated population,” Dr. Peter Juni told CTV News Toronto on Thursday.
While the onslaught of Omicron cases has Ontario’s hospitals seriously stretched, Juni shared hypothetical scenarios, based on the table’s data, and described how the province’s health-care system is coping.
The numbers come from the province’s hospitalization data according to vaccination status as of Thursday, Jan. 6.
On that day, the province listed 319 people in the ICU with the virus, including 123 unvaccinated patients, 28 partially vaccinated and 87 fully vaccinated. The vaccination status of the remaining 81 patients is unknown.
Juni said if everyone was vaccinated, that number would shift below 150.
“If you have at least two doses, better three, it protects really well against COVID-19 hospital and ICU admissions. That’s the great news,” he said.
But he argued that if all Ontarians were unvaccinated, instead of 319 COVID-19 patients in the ICU, there would be closer to 2,000 -- a situation he described as unimaginable.
“Our system would have decompensated and fallen apart weeks ago. This is just other worldly,” said Juni.
“This only shows you how far we have come with this pandemic.”
When it comes to the number of people in hospital with COVID, but not the ICU, Juni said if everyone in the province was vaccinated, there would be about 1,200 people in hospital, instead of Thursday’s total of 2,279.
IMPACT ON STAFFING AND BEDS IN HOSPITAL
Looking at staffing and beds in hospitals, Juni said an average of 1.5 nurses are needed per ICU patient.
If Ontario had only 150 people with COVID in the ICU based on Juni’s hypothesis of an entirely vaccinated population, he said Ontario would require about 280 fewer nurses per day, and some 180 ICU beds would be freed up.
An empty intensive care unit room is ready to be cleaned after a COVID-19 patient was transferred at the Humber River Hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto on Tuesday, April 13, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
1.5 MILLION ONTARIANS UNVACCINATED
Juni said 1.5 million Ontarians remain unvaccinated, and with the current level of protection, he said it’s very difficult to tell what the peak in ICU admissions will be related to Omicron, as daily case counts are no longer reliable and testing is overwhelmed.
Juni said even if everyone had two doses, some public health restrictions would be still needed before that peak.
“Can we reduce the risk to zero through vaccination? No of course not,” Juni said. “But we can reduce it to a relative amount that protects the individual and the health-care system.”
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Sparks fly as MPs question minister on pension implications of proposed election date change
Sparks flew at a parliamentary committee Thursday as MPs questioned Canada's democratic institutions minister about a widely opposed provision in electoral reform legislation that seeks to delay the next fixed election date by one week.
'There is no electricity': Canadian travellers in Cuba urge caution in hurricane's wake
Cuba's power grid was knocked out by Hurricane Rafael, which ripped across the country as a Category 3 storm. In western Cuba, it toppled buildings and pushed 50,000 people to find shelter elsewhere. Cubans were already enduring rolling blackouts due to energy shortages.
Three charged in One Direction singer Liam Payne's death
Three people have been charged in relation to One Direction singer Liam Payne's death in a fall from his Buenos Aires hotel balcony last month, Argentine authorities said on Thursday.
RCMP already 'on high alert' for potential wave of migrants after Trump election
Canada's federal police force has been preparing for months on a contingency plan for a potential massive influx of migrants across the border following Trump's promise of 'mass deportations' of millions of undocumented immigrants in the U.S.
'There was no stopping this baby from coming': Woman gives birth while aboard Newfoundland ferry
A young family from Codroy Valley, N.L., is happy to be on land and resting with their newborn daughter, Miley, after an overwhelming, yet exciting experience at sea.
Volkswagen models recalled for airbag safety precaution
Recall notices have been issued for some Volkswagen models from 2006 to 2019 for airbag safety issues.
Canmore wildlife and landscape defender Karsten Heuer dies peacefully at 56
Canmore conservationist Karsten Heuer, who was a biologist, park ranger, author and activist, has died.
America votes: How celebrities are reacting to Trump's decisive victory
Celebrities from Hulk Hogan to Ariana Grande are sharing their reactions to the U.S. election, which will see Donald Trump return to the White House.
3 Winnipeg police officers charged with breach of trust, theft
Three members of the Winnipeg Police Service have been charged with breach of trust, obstruction of justice and theft following a lengthy investigation