Ontario's COVID-19 case counts 'flattened' but exponential growth still possible if restrictions lift: modelling
A group of scientists advising the Ford government say that the fourth wave of the pandemic appears to have “flattened” but they are warning that there is “no wiggle room” with new modelling now pointing to an exponential rise in cases should restrictions be lifted prematurely.
The projections, released by Ontario’s Science Advisory Table on Tuesday afternoon, suggest that the rolling seven-day average of new cases is on track to hover under 1,000 through much of October before rising to around 1,500 by by the beginning of November, assuming there is no change in policy or behaviour.
But the projections warn that should Ontario lift most remaining restrictions, a scenario that the scientists concede is unlikely, case counts would likely surpass 5,000 by the end of November.
In a more optimistic scenario, based on a 25 per cent reduction in transmission, case counts would steadily decline and dip down to a few hundred a day by November.
“There is a wide range for case projections, reflecting the fragile situation and high degree of instability as colder weather approaches with more time indoors,” a presentation accompanying the new figures states. “Continued control over case growth requires high vaccination rates in the eligible population, continued public health measures, and a flattening of growth in mobility.”
The last projections released by the science table back on Sept. 1 warned that daily case counts could reach 4,000 a day by October if the province continued along the trajectory it was on then.
But the projections also suggested that Ontario could see case counts begin to decline so long as residents reduced their contacts marginally and the province has, in fact, charted closer to that “best case scenario” with it’s rolling seven-day average now standing at 606, down from 701 on Sept. 1.
In a series of messages posted to Twitter on Tuesday afternoon, the science table said that Ontario is currently “walking a narrow ledge” with case counts increasing in 19 of the province’s 34 health units as well as among the cohort of school-aged children that are not yet eligible to be vaccinated (ages 5 to 11).
The scientists also warned that it is “too early to see the impact of increased contacts with return to school and workplaces,” creating further uncertainty as we head into October.
“The bottom line: we’re doing well for now. But if we want to control cases, hospitalizations and deaths we must increase vaccination rates again and keep current public health measures to limit contacts until many more (& younger) Ontarians are vaxxed,” they said.
Hospitalizations are likely to rise but not rapidly
Hospitalizations in Ontario slowly rose through much of August as the Delta-driven fourth wave of the pandemic unfolded but have been mostly steady for several weeks now.
The modelling released by the science table on Tuesday said that the current trajectory that we are on suggests that there will be a gradual increase in the number of COVID patients in the ICU from 180 as of Monday night to closer to 300 by the end of October.
But it also says that any high risk of a rapid increase in ICU occupancy can be negated “with a cautious approach and early contact reductions.”
In fact, the scientists say that Ontario’s favourable situation compared to some other provinces is likely due to the fact that “we’ve kept enough public health measures in place to keep some control on contacts,” even as businesses reopened and larger gatherings were permitted.
“Today’s modelling further reinforces that as a result of Ontario’s extremely cautious approach, including maintaining strong public health measures such as indoor masking, the province’s public health and health care indicators remain stable or are improving,” a spokesperson for Minister of Health Christine Elliott said in a statement provided to media outlets. “In fact, Ontario continues to report one of the lowest rates of active cases in the country, well below the national average, as we have trended toward the best-case scenario projected in the last modelling.”
More to come...
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'A step forward': New screening criteria for sperm donors takes effect
Canadians looking to grow their families with the assistance of sperm or egg donations should soon have more options for donors as the federal health agency does away with longstanding restrictions criticized as discriminatory.
What is whooping cough and should Canadians be concerned as Europe declares outbreak?
There is currently a whooping cough epidemic in Europe, with 10 times as many cases compared to the previous two years. While an outbreak has not been declared nationwide in Canada, whooping cough is regularly detected in the country.
Ontario Provincial Police arrest 64 suspects in child sexual exploitation investigation
Ontario Provincial Police say 64 suspects are facing a combined 348 charges in connection with a series of child sexual exploitation investigations that spanned the province.
Ippei Mizuhara, ex-interpreter for baseball star Shohei Ohtani, pleads guilty in sports betting case
The former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud Wednesday in a sports betting case where prosecutors allege he stole US$16 million from the Japanese baseball player to pay off debts.
Steve Albini, legendary producer for Nirvana, the Pixies and an alternative rock pioneer, dies at 61
Steve Albini, an alternative rock pioneer and legendary producer who shaped the musical landscape through his work with Nirvana, the Pixies, PJ Harvey and more, has died. He was 61.
Pfizer agrees to settle more than 10K lawsuits over Zantac cancer risk: Bloomberg News
Pfizer has agreed to settle more than 10,000 lawsuits about cancer risks related to the now discontinued heartburn drug Zantac, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the deal.
U.S. presidential candidate RFK Jr. had a brain worm, has recovered, campaign says
Independent U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had a parasite in his head more than a decade ago, but has fully recovered, his campaign said, after the New York Times reported about the ailment.
Watch fighter jet pilots pummel fake enemy ship off coast of Philippines
The United States and Philippines held annual joint-training drills just off the Southeast Asian nation’s western coast on Wednesday. Military forces sunk a 'mock' enemy warship – the BRP Lake Caliraya, which was a decommissioned tanker made in China.
'Summer of discontent': Federal unions vow to fight new 3-day a week office mandate
Federal unions are launching legal challenges and encouraging public sector workers to file "tens of thousands" of grievances over the new mandate requiring federal workers to return to the office at least three days a week in the fall.