Ontario PCs in ‘weakest position’ since 2022 election in wake of Greenbelt scandal: pollster

CORRECTION: A previous version of this story revealed a portion of the Abacus Data polling results and therefore did not provide a complete and accurate picture. This story has been updated to include the missing data.

As the $8-billion Ontario Greenbelt land-swap scandal unfolds, a recent poll suggests that support for the Progressive Conservatives has fallen marginally with a more pronounced drop among “committed voters.”

The poll of 2,003 eligible voters was conducted by Abacus Data from Aug. 29 to Sept. 4, 2023. It shows that support for the PCs now stands at approximately 27 per cent among all respondents, down two percentage points from a poll released on Aug. 23.

The Tories remain ahead of the Liberals who polled at 22 per cent (up three points) and the NDP, who polled at 21 per cent (up three points). The Green party had the support of about six per cent of committed voters (up one point).

About 20 per cent of respondents were still undecided on their voting intentions, down four points form the last Abacus poll.

The drop in support for the PCs was more pronounced among committed voters.

The poll suggests that 34 per cent of the respondents who identified themselves as “committed voters” plan to vote for the PCs in the next election, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals and 26 per cent for the NDP.

That level of support represents a four-point drop from an Abacus poll released on Aug. 23, in which 38 per cent of “committed voters” said that they supported the Tories.

Support for the Tories among “committed voters” was at 41 per cent as recently as July 25.

“The Greenbelt scandal has very likely hurt support for the PCs,” Abacus CEO David Collette said in a blog post. “This is the lowest level of support we’ve measured for the Ontario PCs since the last provincial election.” 

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VOTING PATTERNS

Of those polled who voted for the Ontario PCs in the past election, 83 per cent maintained their support, while 17 per cent split “almost evenly across the opposition party,” the survey notes.

The NDP held onto 84 per cent of its voter support and the Liberals held 76 per cent, suggesting neither opposition party has gained from the drop in PC support.

 

‘7-POINT DROP [IS] SIGNIFICANT’: CEO

In Abacus’ Tuesday release, Colette noted that the drop in support for the Ford government in the wake of the land swap scandal is “significant.”

“We will need to explore other measures in the coming weeks to see to what extent it has impacted people’s views of the government and the premier but a seven-point drop (among committed voters) in support over the summer is significant,” Colette said.

“Whether this is the end [of] the bleeding remains to be seen, but so far, the PCs are in their weakest position since the resounding re-election in June 2022.”

The survey is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,003 eligible voters in Ontario adults from Aug. 29 to Sept. 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.