Nearly half of Toronto voters have not decided who to pick for next mayor: poll

Voters line up outside a voting station to cast their ballot in the Toronto's municipal election in Toronto on Monday, October 22 , 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

A new poll suggests just under half of Toronto voters have still not made up their minds about who they will vote for in June's mayoral byelection.

The survey, conducted by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada, found that 43 per cent of respondents were unsure who they would vote for if an election were held today, two points less than when they conducted a survey a week earlier and 45 per cent said they hadn’t decided.

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Among decided voters, there seems to be a tight race between three candidates; Olivia Chow (13 per cent), Josh Matlow (12 per cent), and Mark Saunders (11 per cent).

Brad Bradford trailed at six per cent, followed by Ana Bailão and Mitzi Hunter, each with five percent. Anthony Perruzza and Anthony Furey each came in at one percent. Three per cent said they would vote for a candidate who wasn’t on the survey.

“A lot of people have yet to make up their minds,” Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin told CP24 in an interview. “And that could be because they're still not following the race or still not paying attention, or it could be because there's 50 candidates who are running and they are having a hard time making up their mind.”

He said it’s difficult for candidates to compete to get their message out in such a crowded field and that may be why many Torontonians aren’t yet sure who the candidates are.

• FULL LIST: Who is running for mayor of Toronto?

“Hopefully soon we'll start seeing some debates and some opportunities for the candidates to interact and people will be able to make up their minds a little, they'll have a little more information about who exactly looks good in the mayor's chair,” Valentin said.

Among the leading candidates, Saunders saw the strongest support in Etobicoke (18 per cent), while Matlow and Chow saw their strongest support in North York (15 per cent each).

Valentin said it’s not surprising that the candidates doing well so far are those who have been around for quite some time and have strong name recognition. However he pointed out that there’s still “a long way” to June and those who are doing well will have to work to maintain and grow those leads.

The survey offers a rough sketch of where the race stands now, but just over two months remain before voters head to the polls on June 26 and nominations remain open until May 12.

Lesser-known candidates who hope to be competitive will need to do something to get their names out before Election Day, Valentin said.

The survey also asked respondents about crime and safety. It found that 61 per cent of Torontonians feel there is more crime in their community compared to the same time last year, with 51 per cent saying they live within 1 km of an area where they'd be afraid to walk alone at night.

In terms of how to deal with the issue, respondents were split, with 39 per cent favouring cutting funding from the police budget in order to spend more on social services and 37 per cent opposing the idea.

Some 38 per cent of respondents said they worry that they or a family member could be the victim of crime on public transit.

“Whether it's crime, more affordable housing or just the cost of living, it's a real question; Which of the candidates is going to put forward a dynamic plan to address those problems,” Valentin said.

The poll surveyed 1,264 Toronto voters through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) between April 21 and April 22. The poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.