Ontario on track for good summer despite small risk of fourth wave, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases in Ontario are dropping sharply and while the threat of a fourth wave caused by the delta variant still exists it is unlikely, health officials say.
Officials unveiled updated COVID-19 modelling data on Thursday, which depicts a much better control overthe pandemic in Ontario than in previous updates.
"We've turned the corner in our progress against the pandemic," Science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said. "We can look forward to a much better summer."
According to the modelling, cases should continue to decline for at least the next 10 days in Ontario.
Infections have already declined sharply in almost all public health units over the past few weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also continuedto drop.
If Ontario continues to control COVID-19, the modelling suggests intensive care admissions will drop to below 200 bymid-July and normal hospital operations can resume.
HOW ONTARIO PLANS TO AVOID A FOURTH WAVE
To avoid a fourth wave, officials say Ontario needs to ensure full immunization in high-risk communities with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The delta variant, which is expected to become the province’s dominant strain early this summer, is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the B.1.1.7, or alpha, variant.
Officials say the first dose of aCOVID-19 vaccine is less effective in protecting against the delta variant.
A second dose of the vaccine adds 50 per cent effectiveness, officials said.
"To be clear,we are not out of the woods just yet," Brown said. "Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave and the delta variant, the variant that hit India so hard, is here and is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer but we believe we can control it with the right action."
"This is not a doomsday scenario … We have a really good chance of a good summer."
Ontario announced on Thursday it will begin accelerating second doses for individuals who received their first shot on or before May 9 in seven hot spot areas where the delta variant is a concern.
Individuals in hot spots within Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York public health units will be eligible to book their second Pfizer or Moderna doses through the provincial booking system as of 8 a.m. on June 14.
In a best case scenario, Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.
In a medium scenario, that number could jump back up to nearly 1,000 cases per day by August.
In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.
Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus.
In total, over 10.6 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of Ontarians. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.
Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday the majority of people getting infected with COVID-19 in Ontario are those who haven't received a first dose.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Evacuation order issued for some Fort McMurray neighbourhoods as wildfire nears
Four Fort McMurray neighbourhoods were ordered to evacuate as a wildfire gets closer to the city.
Maximum payout for LifeLabs class-action drops from $150 estimate to $7.86
Canadian LifeLabs customers who filed an application for a class-action settlement began receiving their payments this week, though at a much lower amount than initially expected.
BREAKING 'A remarkable time': After 8 years at Toronto Public Health, Dr. Eileen de Villa announces resignation
The doctor who led Toronto through the COVID-19 pandemic as the city’s top public health official is stepping down.
BREAKING Sask. man faces 60 charges in child exploitation investigation, with crimes dating back to 2005
Saskatchewan RCMP have revealed that a historic sexual assault investigation has led to the discovery of alleged crimes against children dating back to 2005.
Latest updates on air quality alerts, and when the smoke may reach Ontario and Quebec
Wildfires have led Environment Canada to issue air quality advisories for parts of B.C., Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories, as forecasters warn the smoke could drift farther east.
American sought after 'So I raped you' Facebook message detained in France on 2021 warrant
An American accused of sexually assaulting a Pennsylvania college student in 2013 and later sending her a Facebook message that said, 'So I raped you,' has been detained in France after a three-year search.
Full List Are these Canada's best restaurants? Annual top 100 list revealed
The annual list of Canada's top restaurants in the country was just released and here are the places that made the 2024 cut.
Alice Munro, Nobel literature winner revered as short story master, dead at 92
Nobel laureate Alice Munro, the Canadian literary giant who became one of the world's most esteemed contemporary authors and one of history's most honoured short story writers, has died at age 92.
1 killed, 3 injured in head-on crash on Hwy. 417 in Ottawa
Ontario Provincial Police are responding to a fatal collision involving two vehicles on Highway 417 in Ottawa's west end on Tuesday morning.