Housing correction in Toronto could end up becoming 'one of the deepest of the past half a century,' RBC warns
A housing correction, which has already led to four consecutive months of price declines in the previously overheated Greater Toronto Area market, could end up becoming "one of the deepest of the past half a century," a new report from RBC warns.
New data released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) last week revealed that the average benchmark price for a home in the GTA fell six per cent month-over-month in July to $1,074,754.
Sales were also down a staggering 47 per cent from July, 2021.
In a report published on Aug. 4, RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue said recent data from real estate boards underlines that higher interest rates are beginning to take a "huge toll" on the market.
Hogue said that with further hikes to come, prices will likely continue to slide in the coming months.
That prediction, it should be noted, goes against a report from Royal LePage last month which painted a rosier forecast for sellers in which values would more or less holding for the rest of the year following some declines in the second quarter.
“Our expectations for further hikes by the Bank of Canada—another 75 basis points to go in the overnight rate by the fall— will keep chilling the market in the months ahead,” Hogue said. “We expect the downturn to intensify and spread further as buyers take a wait-and-see approach while ascertaining the impact of higher lending rates. Canada’s least affordable markets Vancouver and Toronto, and their surrounding regions, are most at risk in light of their excessively stretched affordability and outsized price gains during the pandemic.”
The Bank of Canada has hiked the overnight lending rate by 225 basis points since March and has warned that further hikes will be necessary given that inflation remains at a near 40-year high.
- Download our app to get local alerts to your device
- Get the latest local updates right to your inbox
In his report, Hogue pointed out that the housing correction “now runs far and wide across Canada” but he said that it is particularly pronounced in the costlier markets of Toronto and Vancouver.
In fact, Hogue said that housing resale activity in Toronto is at its slowest pace in 13 years, outside of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The stockpile of available homes is also up 58 per cent from a year ago, he noted.
“With more options to choose from and higher interest rates shrinking their purchasing budgets, buyers are able to extract meaningful price concessions from sellers,” he said, pointing out that the average price of a home in the GTA is down 13 per cent from March. “We expect buyers to remain on the defensive in the months ahead as they deal with rising interest rates and poor affordability.”
While Hogue did say that condos in the City of Toronto are likely to remain “relatively more resilient” he said that prices elsewhere will continue to fall for the time being, especially in the 905 belt “where property values soared during the pandemic.”
The July data from TRREB suggested that the average price of a home in the GTA was still up one per cent from July, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Asking rent prices up 9.3% across Canada, Ontario sees only decline: report
A new report says the average asking rent for a home in Canada in April was up 9.3 per cent compared with a year ago, while a slight month-over-month increase was also recorded for the first time since January.
What is basic income, and how would it impact me?
Parliamentarians are considering a pair of bills aiming to lift people out of poverty through a basic income program, but some fear these types of systems could result in more taxes for Canadians who are already financially struggling.
'I may have some nightmares:' Man survives being bitten by 2 sharks in Bahamas
A man who was bitten by two sharks in the Bahamas said Thursday he's 'thankful that I'm here' while sharing his story of survival.
Magnitude 4.2 earthquake reported off Vancouver Island's west coast
A 4.2-magnitude earthquake was recorded west of Vancouver Island early Friday morning.
Mexico's president accuses press and volunteer searchers for missing people of 'necrophilia'
The administration of Mexico's president has accused the press and volunteer searchers who look for the bodies of missing people of 'necrophilia,' comments that drew criticism this week.
WATCH Expecting an interest rate cut in June? Don't bet on it after new jobs data
Canada's labour market rebounded in April, adding more than 90,000 jobs, a staggering number of new positions after four consecutive months of little change.
Out-of-control wildfire burning near Fort McMurray
As of 9 a.m. on Friday, the wildfire burning 28 kilometres southwest of the northeastern Alberta city was 25 hectares in size.
Prince William says wife Kate is 'doing well'
Prince William said on Friday his wife Kate was 'doing well' in a rare public comment about the Princess of Wales as she undergoes preventative chemotherapy for cancer.
'Irate male' assaulted Newfoundland officers with block of cheese, police say
Police in Newfoundland say patrol officers were assaulted Thursday by a "very irate male" wielding a block of cheese.