Gun violence in Toronto on the decline according to new data

New data released by Toronto police shows the city has seen fewer shootings so far this year compared to 2022.

According to the service’s crime data, which was last updated on July 17, there have been about 28 per cent fewer shootings and firearm discharges in the city compared to the same time period last year.

Police say that 66 people were killed or injured during one of the 158 gun-related events that took place in 2023. This represents a decrease from the 78 people killed or injured between Jan. 1 and July 16 in 2022, when 221 shootings or firearm discharges took place.

A spokesperson for the Toronto Police Service said that, “shooting incidents are trending in the right direction, despite some of the more recent occurrences.”

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Torontonians have been grappling with multiple shootings—including numerous daytime incidents—over the last few weeks.

A 44-year-old mother was fatally shot shortly after noon on July 7 near the corner of Queen Street East and Carlaw Avenue. Investigators say she was struck by a stray bullet.

On July 16, three people were shot around 3 p.m. outside a Scarborough housing complex and, more recently, a 25-year-old man died Wednesday after an overnight shooting in Toronto’s Jamestown neighbourhood.

Akwasi Owusu-Bempah, an associate professor of sociology with the University of Toronto, told CTV News Toronto on Tuesday that while it may appear as if gun violence is increasing, Toronto remains a very safe city.

“We have increased attention to violent incidents at the moment for a number of reasons, one of which is that they're seemingly spilling out of, to an extent, the concentrated areas which they've often taken place into more public or unusual spaces,” he said.

“Those worried people, of course, because it seemingly makes people feel less safe, even though again, the crime severity index for both Toronto and for Canada has been trending downwards now for quite some time.”

He noted that Toronto’s population needs to be considered as a factor in interpreting firearm data. In comparison with other large Canadian and international cities, Owusu-Bempah says Toronto has a lower gun-related crime and homicide rate per capita.

“But generally, again, you know, Toronto remain a safe city.”

A 2022 report by Statistics Canada found a nation-wide decline in firearm-related crime was largely influenced by urban areas. It notes that in Toronto, between 2020 and 2021, gun violence decreased by about 22 per cent.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Toronto police noted that gun violence had been “steadily increasing since 2015, but that it began to decrease again around 2019.

“Most shootings are targeted and isolated, which speaks to the gang culture piece where we need to continue to work with agencies at all levels to identify root causes,” the spokesperson said, adding that the TPS’ overall solve rates have also increased.

The service cited work by the Gang Prevention Task Force and Gang Exit Program for reducing gang activity in the city.

Former homicide detective for Toronto Police Services Mark Mendelson said that while the programs are positive and may be contributing to a reduction of gun violence, the city won’t see the full impacts of these programs for years to come. The newly released data, he warned, are “just numbers.”

“All we need is a couple of bad weekends and those numbers are going to flip,” he told Newstalk1010’s Moore in the Morning Tuesday.

“But in the meantime, these are all positive numbers.”