Ford widens lead, gap narrows between Liberals and NDP in final poll

Doug Ford appears to have widened his lead over the Liberals to the widest point in the campaign, a new poll suggests as voters head to the polls on Thursday.

The Ford PCs have 38.8 per cent support among decided voters, according to a new poll conducted between Sunday and Tuesday for CTV News and CP24 by Nanos Research.

Meanwhile, the Liberals have 26.3 per cent support and the NDP have 24.7 per cent support.

“As of May 31st, the Progressive Conservatives continue to lead and enjoy a comfortable advantage over the other parties,” pollster Nik Nanos said in a release accompanying the poll results. “The most likely outcome is a PC win with the only question being the magnitude of their seat advantage over the other parties.”

The latest result suggest the Liberals are continuing to lose support, down about four per cent from polls conducted as early as May 8.

Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP appear to be swinging upwards, up about five per cent from an earlier Nanos poll released on May 17.

The Greens appear to be falling slightly from a high of 7.3 per cent recorded after leader Mike Schreiner’s primetime debate performance, now standing at 6.1 per cent among decided voters.

Two upstart parties on the political right, the Ontario Party and the New Blue Party, are at about two per cent support each.

The last Nanos poll of the election campaign shows Ford remains the top choice among all age bands, from 18-34s to those 55 and up, with his lead over his closest rival ranging from 13 to 20 points.

Ford maintains a 16 per cent lead over his closest rival inside the GTA and a 14 per cent lead among voters outside the GTA, the poll suggests.

Nanos found about 8.4 per cent of respondents are still unsure of who to vote for.

The poll was conducted on May 29 to 31, using random sampling of 500 adult land line, cell phone and internet subscribers.

Its margin of error is 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

METHODOLOGY

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 500 residents of Ontario, 18 years of age or older, between May 29thto 31st, 2022 as part of a tracking survey. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and were administered the survey online and by telephone. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Ontario.

Individuals were randomly called using random digit dialing with a maximum of five call backs.