PCs open Ontario election campaign with seven-point lead, new poll suggests

Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative party have a seven-point lead ahead of the formal start of Ontario’s provincial election campaign Wednesday, a new poll has found.

The Nanos Research survey of 500 adults was commissioned on behalf of CTV News and CP24.

It found the Tories currently have the support of 36.9 per cent of Ontario voters while the Liberals, led by Steven Del Duca, are supported by 30.4 per cent of decided voters. Andrea Horwath and the NDP sit in third with the support of 23.7 per cent of decided voters while the Greens are a distant fourth with 4.3 per cent.

About nine per cent of voters are still undecided.

The results point to a close race in the GTA where the Tories only have a one-point lead on the Liberals as the campaign gets underway (31 per cent to 30 per cent).

But elsewhere in Ontario the Tories enjoy an 11-point cushion on the Liberals and a 15-point cushion on the NDP.

When it comes to Ontarians choice for premier, Doug Ford was selected by a plurality of respondents (29.9 per cent) but his support trailed that of the party that he leads.

Meanwhile, only 17 per cent of respondents said Steven Del Duca was their preferred premier despite a much higher proportion of decided voters who indicated they intend to cast a ballot for the party.

The dichotomy was less pronounced for Andrea Horwath. About 22.8 per cent of respondents said that the NDP leader was their preferred choice for premier, tracking closely with the party’s overall numbers.

The poll was conducted between April 28 and May 2, both online and via the telephone. It is considered accurate to within 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

METHODOLOGY

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 500 residents of Ontario, 18 years of age or older, between April 28th and May 2nd, 2022 as part of an omnibus survey.

The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Ontario. Individuals were randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs. The margin of error for a random survey of 500 Ontario residents is ±4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.