Ontario will see rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations even without Omicron variant, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Ontario will continue to rise substantially, even without the Omicron variant, if vaccination do not increase and further public health measures are not implemented, new modelling data released by the province’s science table suggests.
Experts with the Ontario’s Science Advisory Table released new modelling data on Tuesday to lay out all the possible scenarios the province is facing as the fourth wave continues to worsen and the mysterious new variant makes its way into the region.
“We can’t predict Omicron precisely, but it will almost certainly hit us hard and fast,” the scientists said in a series of messages on Twitter. “Cases are rising, even without much Omicron yet. Our hospitals and ICUs are feeling pressure again. We need to increase vaccination and we can’t let up on public health measures.”
Ontario has been struggling with a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases. The province’s seven-day average rose to 975 today, a level not seen since the decline of the third wave in early June. In addition, hospitalization have also been gradually increasing.
The scientists revealed on Tuesday that “even without Omicron” the number of people in the intensive care with COVID-19 is expected to climb to between 250 and 400 by January, putting hospitals under strain again.
Their projections showed, in the most likely scenario, which assumes 50 per cent of children would be vaccinated by the end of December, case counts rise well above 1,700 per day by mid-January.
In the worst-case scenario, if only 30 per cent of children between those ages are vaccinated and the public health measures continue as they are, case counts could go to nearly 3,000 per day. In this scenario, ICU cases also rise to nearly 400 by mid-January.
However, in the best-case scenario, experts say that if new health measures are implemented and 30 per cent of children get vaccinated before December ends, case counts will start to drop in mid January from 1,000 per day. ICU cases are also expected to start dropping in this scenario.
They scientists say that the spread of the Omicron variant will likely drive COVID-19 cases above the current projections.
“The modelling is disconcerting … I am concerned about the coming months and its potential impact on our health care system and its potential impact on our healthcare system,” Ontario Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said in a news conference on Tuesday. “The emergence of Omicron serves as a stark reminder of just how quickly things can change and how we must always keep our guard up.”
“As we enter the holiday season, I'm encouraging all Ontarians to avoid large crowds, practice physical distancing, wear your mask and wear it properly, wash your hands frequently, stay home when you're sick, and get vaccinated.”
The modelling data warns of a rapid increase in daily cases in the province of Gauteng in South Africa, which indicates that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta. While the current situation is “very uncertain,” the scientists stated that the potential impact of Omicron on cases could be very substantial.
The modelling found that if Omicron proves to be “moderately” more infectious and if vaccines continue to be “moderately” effective against it, daily case counts will likely surpass 2,000 in January. If the new variant is “much more infectious” and “much more” resistant to vaccines, the scientists say that daily case counts could surpass 3,000 in January.
“South African data shows fast spread. But vaccines seem to protect against hospitalization, and this time we know how to stop transmission: masking, reducing contacts, ventilation. We’re not back to square one,” the scientists stated.
“We owe a huge debt to South Africa – whose public health system caught this, and whose scientists shared it immediately. Not the first time. Some countries really punch above their weight.”
The science table suggests that while vaccine effectiveness in Ontario remains very high, experience in other countries suggests a need to boost immunity with third doses.
The modelling data shows that people who are unvaccinated have a five-fold higher risk of symptomatic COVID-19 disease, a 13-fold higher risk of being in the hospital and 23-fold higher risk of being in the ICU compared to the fully vaccinated.
At least 13 cases of the Omicron variant have been detected so far in the province and the London, Ont. area health unit is investigating a potential cluster of 30.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
B.C. seeks ban on public drug use, dialing back decriminalization
The B.C. NDP has asked the federal government to recriminalize public drug use, marking a major shift in the province's approach to addressing the deadly overdose crisis.
More than 115 cases of eye damage reported in Ontario after solar eclipse
More than 115 people who viewed the solar eclipse in Ontario earlier this month experienced eye damage after the event, according to eye doctors in the province.
Orca calf that was trapped in B.C. lagoon for weeks swims free
An orca whale calf that has been stranded in a B.C. lagoon for weeks after her pregnant mother died swam out on her own early Friday morning.
Last letters of pioneering climber who died on Everest reveal dark side of mountaineering
George Mallory is renowned for being one of the first British mountaineers to attempt to scale the dizzying heights of Mount Everest during the 1920s. Nearly a century later, newly digitized letters shed light on Mallory’s hopes and fears about ascending Everest.
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau on navigating post-political life, co-parenting and freedom
Sophie Gregoire Trudeau says there is 'still so much love' between her and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as they navigate their post-separation relationship co-parenting their three children.
'I was scared': Ontario man's car repossessed after missing two repair loan payments
An Ontario man who took out a loan to pay for auto repairs said his car was repossessed after he missed two payments.
Trump's lawyers try to discredit testimony of prosecution's first witness in hush money trial
Donald Trump's defence team attacked the credibility Friday of the prosecution's first witness in his hush money case, seeking to discredit testimony detailing a scheme between Trump and a tabloid to bury negative stories to protect the Republican's 2016 presidential campaign.
U.S. flight attendant indicted in attempt to record teen girl in airplane bathroom
An American Airlines flight attendant was indicted Thursday after authorities said he tried to secretly record video of a 14-year-old girl using an airplane bathroom last September.
Powerful tornado tears across Nebraska, weather service warns of 'catastrophic' damage
Devastating tornadoes tore across parts of eastern Nebraska and northeast Texas Friday as a multi-day severe thunderstorm event ramped up in the central United States.