Ontario's COVID-19 case counts expected to remain stable as long as public health measures are not lifted
Ontario's daily COVID-19 case counts are expected to remain stable over the next month despite an increase in social contacts, newly released modelling shows, but only if public health measures are not lifted.
The new data was released by the province's Science Advisory Table late Friday morning.
In the presentation, officials say that COVID-19 cases are declining in most public health units across Ontario as a result of vaccinations and continued public health measures.
The modelling suggests that even with "some increase in contacts between individuals," Ontario could see about 500 new COVID-19 cases a day in November. That number increases to a little over 600 daily infections with a "substantial increase in contacts."
Officials did not specify what a substantial increase in contacts means, but noted that even in that scenario, occupancy in Ontario's intensive care units would remain stable with fewer than 200 patients.
The modelling banks on public health measures—such as masking, vaccine certificates, symptom screening and ventilation—remaining in place. Officials warn that in Nordic countries that have lifted public health measures, there was an increase in daily infections.
"Lifting public health measures can drive a new wave, even with strong vaccine coverage," the modelling says.
If Ontarians do not change their social behavior, do not increase their contacts and there is no change in public health measures, the daily COVID-19 case count could drop to about 200.
New modelling data was released by Ontario's COVID-19 Science Table on Oct. 22, 2021.
In general, director of the science table Peter Jüni said the modelling is "really, really great news" but warned the data could still fluctuate.
"The point is, you know since roughly the 23rd of July or so our mobility is stable and this is correlated with people's behavior with their contacts and during the same time what we saw is that 2.5 million people got fully vaccinated. This gives us quite a lot of protection," he told CP24 after the modellilng was released.
"But we continue to be in a wobbly balance and we need to be aware of that."
On Friday, Premier Doug Ford announced that the province would lift capacity limits in restaurants, fitness centres, casinos and a number of other non-essential indoor settings that require proof of vaccination starting Monday and outlined a plan for the loosening of further restrictions into 2022.
The province has already lifted capacity restrictions in select venues for large sporting events and concerts.
Jüni says the province won't know the true impact of easing that public health restriction for another week.
"We need these three-week gaps between steps that we're doing to understand what the impact is."
The last time officials presented COVID-19 modelling data was in early September, when they said the province was facing a "substantial" fourth wave that could see October's daily case counts reach 9,000 in the worst-case scenario.
WHAT'S NEXT FOR ONTARIO'S VACCINATION PLAN?
The science table says that unvaccinated individuals have a seven-fold higher risk of contracting symptomatic COVID-19 than someone who has received both doses. They also have a 17-fold higher risk of being hospitalized and a 23-fold higher risk of being admitted into intensive care compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
Currently, only people aged 12 and up are eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, but with news that Pfizer-BioNTech has asked Health Canada to review doses for children aged five to 11 years old, public health units are starting to develop their own campaigns to encourage vaccination in that demographic.
The science table, for its part, suggests public health units adopt "smart, tailored strategies" to "set the course for a strong immunization program in children."
This includes hosting clinics at schools or other familiar locations for children, encouraging healthcare providers to engage with parents and kids, ensure reminders for second doses and create information campaigns within the community.
"Information is not enough and the source matters," the modelling suggests.
Officials also warn against a "one-size-fits-all" approach and to take special consideration for reaching racialized communities.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Spectacular aurora light show to be seen across Canada Friday night
A rare and severe solar storm is expected to bring spectacular displays of the northern lights, also known as aurora borealis, across much of Canada and parts of the United States on Friday night.
Town of Fort Nelson, B.C., ordered to evacuate due to wildfire
The entire town of Fort Nelson, B.C., as well as the nearby Fort Nelson First Nation, has been ordered to evacuate due to an out-of-control wildfire.
Bouchard lifts Edmonton Oilers to 4-3 overtime win over Canucks in Game 2
Evan Bouchard scored 5:38 into overtime and the Edmonton Oilers bounced back for a 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Friday.
McGill University seeks emergency injunction to dismantle pro-Palestinian encampment
McGill University has filed a request for an injunction to have the pro-Palestinian encampment removed from its campus.
Which Canadian cities have the highest and lowest grocery prices?
Where you live plays a big factor in what you pay at the grocery store. And while it's no secret the same item may have a different price depending on the store, city or province, we wanted to see just how big the differences are, and why.
Swarm of 20,000 bees gather around woman’s car west of Toronto
A swarm of roughly 20,000 bees gathered around a woman’s car in the parking lot of Burlington Centre.
Video shows naked raccoon catching B.C. family by surprise
When Marvin Henschel spotted a strange and hairless creature wandering through a front lawn in B.C.'s Lower Mainland, he could barely believe his eyes.
Barron Trump declines to serve as an RNC delegate
Former U.S. President Donald Trump's youngest son, Barron Trump, has declined to serve as a delegate at this summer’s Republican National Convention, according to a senior Trump campaign adviser and a statement from Melania Trump's office.
Out-of-control wildfire prompts evacuation alert for Fort McMurray, Saprae Creek Estates Friday night
An evacuation alert was issued for two Wood Buffalo communities Friday night, as crews battled an out-of-control wildfire near Fort McMurray.