Ontario on track for good summer despite small risk of fourth wave, modelling suggests
COVID-19 cases in Ontario are dropping sharply and while the threat of a fourth wave caused by the delta variant still exists it is unlikely, health officials say.
Officials unveiled updated COVID-19 modelling data on Thursday, which depicts a much better control overthe pandemic in Ontario than in previous updates.
"We've turned the corner in our progress against the pandemic," Science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown said. "We can look forward to a much better summer."
According to the modelling, cases should continue to decline for at least the next 10 days in Ontario.
Infections have already declined sharply in almost all public health units over the past few weeks.
COVID-19 hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also continuedto drop.
If Ontario continues to control COVID-19, the modelling suggests intensive care admissions will drop to below 200 bymid-July and normal hospital operations can resume.
HOW ONTARIO PLANS TO AVOID A FOURTH WAVE
To avoid a fourth wave, officials say Ontario needs to ensure full immunization in high-risk communities with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The delta variant, which is expected to become the province’s dominant strain early this summer, is about 50 per cent more transmissible than the B.1.1.7, or alpha, variant.
Officials say the first dose of aCOVID-19 vaccine is less effective in protecting against the delta variant.
A second dose of the vaccine adds 50 per cent effectiveness, officials said.
"To be clear,we are not out of the woods just yet," Brown said. "Our ICUs still have more COVID-19 patients than they did at the peak of the second wave and the delta variant, the variant that hit India so hard, is here and is on track to be the dominant form of the virus this summer but we believe we can control it with the right action."
"This is not a doomsday scenario … We have a really good chance of a good summer."
Ontario announced on Thursday it will begin accelerating second doses for individuals who received their first shot on or before May 9 in seven hot spot areas where the delta variant is a concern.
Individuals in hot spots within Halton, Peel, Porcupine, Toronto, Waterloo, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph and York public health units will be eligible to book their second Pfizer or Moderna doses through the provincial booking system as of 8 a.m. on June 14.
In a best case scenario, Ontario’s daily COVID-19 case count will remain under 500 during the summer.
In a medium scenario, that number could jump back up to nearly 1,000 cases per day by August.
In a worst case scenario, cases will spike to 2,500 per day by the middle of August.
Health officials logged 590 new infections on Thursday, as well as 11 deaths related to the novel coronavirus.
In total, over 10.6 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of Ontarians. To date, 1,399,776 people have received two shots and are considered fully vaccinated.
Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday the majority of people getting infected with COVID-19 in Ontario are those who haven't received a first dose.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Poilievre says it would be 'not fair' for Liberals to replace Trudeau as leader
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre thinks it would be 'not fair' for the Liberals to oust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau now, as in his view they are 'morally obligated' to keep him.
An expert stands firm on his U.S. election win prediction. Here's what he says happened after
An American presidential historian is maintaining his previous prediction of a Kamala Harris presidency as the U.S. election hits the one-week mark.
Missing B.C. teenager Jodi Henrickson at centre of upcoming documentary
Henrickson was a 17-year-old girl from Squamish who went missing after a house party on Bowen Island, during the then unusually warm summer of 2009.
'I'm ready for an election': Bloc beginning talks to topple Trudeau gov't as ultimatum expires
Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is starting to talk to other opposition parties about bringing down Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government.
Nova Scotia lifts stop-work order at Halifax Walmart one week after body of teen found in oven
Nova Scotia’s Department of Labour has lifted its stop-work order at a Halifax Walmart more than a week after the body of 19-year-old Gursimran Kaur was discovered in an industrial oven in the store’s bakery.
N.S. teen charged for allegedly making threats to school
A Nova Scotia teen is facing numerous charges related to a complex swatting investigation. On Oct. 25, Nova Scotia RCMP, with the assistance of the Ontario Provincial Police, arrested a 14-year-old male at his home in Bridgewater, N.S.
Senior Modi cabinet minister linked to India-supported violence in Canada: officials
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister David Morrison has confirmed a report that Canada is alleging an Indian cabinet minister and close adviser to Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered intelligence-gathering operations of Canadians.
Plant-based milk facility did not follow listeria prevention protocol: CFIA
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency says an Ontario facility producing plant-based milks was not adhering to Health Canada’s policies on listeria prevention prior to an outbreak that led to three deaths.
Special interlocutor calls for 20-year probe into missing Indigenous children
A final report into missing children and unmarked graves at residential schools is calling on the federal government to create an Indigenous-led national commission with a 20-year mandate to investigate missing and disappeared Indigenous children.