Liberals continue to lead in tight race for GTA, poll finds

TORONTO -

With more than a week to go until Canadians cast their ballots, the Liberals continue to maintain a lead in the vote-rich Greater Toronto Area, a new poll has found.

Among decided and leaning voters in the GTA, 39 per cent would choose Liberal on their ballot if the election was held now, while 33 per cent would vote Conservative, according to a Forum Research poll released Saturday.

It is a jump of three percentage points for the Liberals from the Aug. 15 poll conducted by the research firm.

The poll also found that 15 per cent of GTA voters would choose the New Democrats, followed by the People's Party of Canada with 10 per cent and the Green Party with three per cent.

The Liberals have the strongest support among those in the 416, women, and those aged 65 and older. They also have a slight lead in the 905 area.

Meanwhile, support for Conservatives is strongest among men and those in the 45-54 age group. Most voters younger than 25 years old would choose the NDP.

Lorne Bozinoff, the president of Forum Research, told CP24 Saturday the Liberals are now doing much better compared to when the election was called. He said the 905 has a lot of swing seats and leaders are expected to spend their last week in the area.

"(The Liberals) continue to lead in the 416. And that was the case a month ago when the election was called. But now they're also leading in the 905. (The) 905 is absolutely critical to their hopes," Bozinoff said.

Meanwhile, Bozinoff said he is shocked to see the increase in support for the PPC in the GTA.

"About a month ago, they're about five per cent nationally, now they're approximately doubled at 10 per cent. That's huge growth and most of that growth has come really in the last week or so," Bozinoff said.

However, he noted that it is unlikely that a PPC MP will win a seat.

METHODOLOGY

The poll was conducted a day after the English-language debate on Sept. 10 and randomly selected 493 eligible GTA voters using an interactive voice response telephone survey. The findings are considered accurate to within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.