Instead of battling flurries, Torontonians needed umbrellas on Monday morning, and for that they can thank El Nino.

In Cobourg, drivers who stalled out Monday on flooded roadways could curse El Nino.

This was happening on Jan. 25 in the second-coldest country on earth.

"Where is winter? People are sending out search parties looking for winter," Dave Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told CTV Toronto.

He said the federal agency's weather prediction models are predicting more of the same in the roughly two months that winter has left -- near-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

"The big story is where is the snow?" Phillips said, adding the weather has been topsy-turvy everywhere.

A few weeks ago, for example, Florida was in the grips of a devastating deep freeze.

Phillips did say the common denominator linking North American weather events is El Nino, which is when warm currents bubble up in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. This warms the air, which is then carried by the jetstream.

In the past, the El Nino effect has brought storms to California, cool, wet weather to Florida and balmy winters to Canada.

"This El Nino is behaving like its brothers in the past, and this is what we're seeing," Phillips said.

By Thursday, however, Toronto is predicted to cool off. The daytime high will be -5C and will stay in that range through the weekend before rebounding to -1C on Monday.

Light flurries of one to three centimetres are possible over the next week.

Phillips said expect the same pattern for the next few months -- Warm periods followed by periodic reminders that winter isn't over yet.

Dangerous ice

The Toronto Police Service's marine unit put out a warning on Monday telling people that fluctuating temperatures have left ice on the city's waterbodies in dangerous condition.

"These milder temperatures and rain will cause the snow to melt, and rivers and streams to swell, resulting in fast-moving water. Ice over ponds, small lakes, and flood−control areas should also be treated as unsafe, at all times, unless they have been certified safe by the authorities," it said.

Police asked parents to explain the dangers to their children and to call 911 immediately if they see anyone in distress.