Doug Ford government gains double digit lead over Ontario Liberals, poll suggests

Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie are seen in these images dated Aug. 15, 2022 and June 7, 2019, respectively. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld,Chris Young)

Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government has a double digit lead over Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, a new poll suggests, with residents also implying the province was doing the most to spur housing construction.

According to a survey conducted by Liaison Strategies and released Monday, about 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the Progressive Conservatives if an election were held today.

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The provincial Liberal Party received 24 per cent of the support, while 16 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Ontario New Democratic Party.

About 17 per cent of respondents were undecided.

"It's a strong 10-point lead province-wide but regionally there are some very competitive battlegrounds,” David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said in a statement.

The survey suggests that the Liberals are currently claiming a roughly one per cent lead over the PCs in northern Ontario while Ford’s government has significantly more support in the east, as well as southcentral and southwest Ontario. In Toronto and the 905, the PCs and Liberals are neck-in-neck, between three and five percentage points.

"All of that is to say the provincial Tories are doing well but they're not quite running away with it and there are areas of opportunity for the opposition parties,” Valentin said.

Among decided voters, about 39 per cent would cast their ballot for the PCs while 29 per cent plan to vote for the liberals.

Are we building enough housing?

The poll also asks residents if they believe enough homes are being built in Ontario and who is responsible for them.

When asked if more or less housing is being built in Ontario today compared to five years ago, about 41 per cent of respondents said it was about the same. However a similar number of respondents, about 40 per cent, said the provincial government was doing the most to create new housing over their federal and municipal counterparts.

• Who in the GTA has met their Ontario housing targets?

Interestingly, while 55 per cent of respondents said not enough housing is being built in Ontario, about 57 per cent also said there was the right amount being built within their own communities.

"On the surface, Ontarians want to see more housing but would prefer it be built outside their own communities. NIMBYism isn't new, but it's interesting to see that Ford's messaging on building homes is resonating as most are concluding it's the provincial government that's doing the most on housing," Valentin said.

Should long-term care beds be counted as homes?

This debate continues to garner traction, however what’s clear is that among poll respondents the majority believe the answer is no.

Ontario is counting newly created long-term care beds as a home as it works towards building 1.5 million housing units. In 2023, 9,835 long-term care beds are counted towards reaching the provincial goal of 110,000 homes.

When asked on Friday, Ford challenged those critical of use of long-term care beds in the housing tally.

“When a senior living in a condo moves out to long-term care, it's called a home,” Ford told reporters. “They have their own room. They eat in a dining room with everyone else.”

However, about 63 per cent said they shouldn’t count compared to 23 per cent that said they should.

About 14 per cent of respondents said they were not sure.

Methodology

The survey of over 1,200 Ontario residents was conducted between March 8 and March 9 using interactive voice response technology. There is a margin of error of +/- 2.73 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The Liaison Strategies poll was conducted for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada.