Could Toronto elect an 'accidental mayor'? One expert says the conditions are in place

Toronto is home to almost 2 million eligible voters, yet just a small fraction of that number could decide who serves as the next mayor of Canada’s largest metropolis, taking on a $16-billion annual budget and the ability to veto decisions made by council.

”It's going to be a very interesting and maybe bizarre result,” Dennis M. Pilon, associate professor of political science at York University, told Moore in the Morning's John Moore on Monday.

Pilon says a number of factors are in play making this year’s campaign unique. With no incumbent, no obvious frontrunner, a shortened campaign run, and what is predicted to be a low voter turnout, he says Toronto could end up electing an “accidental mayor.”

“We don't have voting campaigns mobilized in different parts of the city,” Pilon explained, hen asked what could be fuelling a prediction of a low 2023 turnout. ”It's a byelection – people aren't really paying that much attention.”

Turnout in municipal races is already lower than [in] other elections, Pilon said, as the lack of political partisanship makes it more difficult for voters to connect with candidates and their campaigns.

He also said the shortened campaign duration will contribute to the lack of overall engagement.

“There's already such a short amount of time for the campaign, and people aren’t paying attention, it's going to come down to which teams have got the resources,” he said, adding that, in most cases, that ends up being candidates “with connections to political parties.”

Of this year’s mayoral candidates, this could point to the likes of MPP for Scarborough – Guildwood Mitzie Hunter, former Liberal MP for Whitby Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former NDP MP for Trinity – Spadina Olivia Chow, former NDP MPP for Downsview Anthony Perruzza or former Toronto police chief, Mark Saunders, who conducted a failed run as a PC candidate MPP for Don Valley West in 2022.

"That's the dirty little secret of municipal politics," Pilon said. "Candidates that have links to the Conservatives, to the Liberals, to the NDP, they're going to be able to get out into the communities or get into the news cycle much more readily than this long list of people who put their name forward that maybe nobody really knows."

Although not associated with provincial or federal politics, candidates Josh Matlow, Brad Bradford, and Perruzza currently sit on Toronto City Council, garnering a degree of recognizability among residents. Candidates Giorgio Mammoliti, Ana Bailão, Olivia Chow, and Rob Davis have also served municipally in the past.

In the last Toronto municipal election, only about 30 per cent of eligible voters took the opportunity to cast their ballot. With just about 350,000 votes, or 61 per cent, former mayor John Tory claimed victory.

In 2018, 41 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballot for Toronto’s mayor – a race also claimed by Tory.

Tory resigned as mayor of Toronto in February after admitting to an extramarital affair with a staffer.

HOW MANY VOTES WOULD TORONTO’S NEXT MAYOR NEED?

The number of votes needed to win June’s byelection will depend on the number of people who decide to vote this year.

If voter turnout remains unchanged from last year’s, a candidate would need about 140,000 votes to make up 25 per cent of the vote – or just over 7 per cent of eligible voters.

If the voter turnout more closely mirrored that of 2018's, a candidate would need just under 195,000 votes to make up 25 per cent of the vote.

Pilon said, however, that a candidate could win a voter percentage as low as 20.

"In this case, we could end up with somebody who was elected by like a very small [group]," he said. "It's anybody's for the winning."

Toronto's byelection is scheduled for June 26.