Who voted for Doug Ford? Here's the breakdown
Despite winning a majority with 83 seats in the legislature, Ontario's Progressive Conservatives failed to gain much in terms of voter shares.
According to data analysis by Environics Analytics, the seats gained by the PCs came primarily as a result of vote splitting between the New Democratic Party and the Ontario Liberals—to the detriment of the NDP.
Senior Vice President Rupen Seoni said the NDP dropped 9.9 percentage points, with gains going primarily to the Liberals.
Unfortunately, it still wasn't enough for the Liberals to gain actual seats in the legislature.
"(The NDP) had fairly consistent losses across the segments of eight to 11 point," Seoni said, adding that the Liberals may be slowly regaining voters' trusts after the 2018 election.
Seoni said the PCs lost some support among key groups that typically vote blue on election day, including aging empty-nest couples in Ontario’s rural areas, affluent families in urban and suburban neighbourhoods, and older, rural couples with modest incomes.
Some of those shares were also picked up by fringe parties that often don't get as much publicity and did not participate in televised debates.
While the PCs lost some support, those voter segments still primarily chose, and elected, their candidates.
"The interesting dynamic is the catch-all “other” category that covers a range of parties, often on the right of the political spectrum. These parties collectively gained substantial share in PC stronghold segments," Seoni said.
"While the PCs were not at risk of losing seats where these segments are present, this could be the emergence of vote-splitting on the right."
How each voter segment cast their ballot during the Ontario 2022 election. (Environics Analytics)
The only voting group that did not vote primarily for the Progressive Conservatives was younger Ontarians just starting their careers with a good education.
The Liberals, on the other hand, picked up a significant share of ballots among the voter segment Environics Analytics calls "New Canadian Mosaic." This grouping represents 15.7 per cent of voters and is primarily made of middle to low income families, many of whom are newcomers living in multi-generation households.
Many of these voters live in the Brampton area.
The Green Party managed to pick up shares of votes in all voting segments, particularly among younger Ontarians and older, rural couples.
Seoni said the Green party's challenge is to appeal to larger multi-ethnic segments.
Environics Analytics and CTV News are both owned by BCE Inc.
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