Ontario's COVID-19 case counts 'flattened' but exponential growth still possible if restrictions lift: modelling
A group of scientists advising the Ford government say that the fourth wave of the pandemic appears to have “flattened” but they are warning that there is “no wiggle room” with new modelling now pointing to an exponential rise in cases should restrictions be lifted prematurely.
The projections, released by Ontario’s Science Advisory Table on Tuesday afternoon, suggest that the rolling seven-day average of new cases is on track to hover under 1,000 through much of October before rising to around 1,500 by by the beginning of November, assuming there is no change in policy or behaviour.
But the projections warn that should Ontario lift most remaining restrictions, a scenario that the scientists concede is unlikely, case counts would likely surpass 5,000 by the end of November.
In a more optimistic scenario, based on a 25 per cent reduction in transmission, case counts would steadily decline and dip down to a few hundred a day by November.
“There is a wide range for case projections, reflecting the fragile situation and high degree of instability as colder weather approaches with more time indoors,” a presentation accompanying the new figures states. “Continued control over case growth requires high vaccination rates in the eligible population, continued public health measures, and a flattening of growth in mobility.”
The last projections released by the science table back on Sept. 1 warned that daily case counts could reach 4,000 a day by October if the province continued along the trajectory it was on then.
But the projections also suggested that Ontario could see case counts begin to decline so long as residents reduced their contacts marginally and the province has, in fact, charted closer to that “best case scenario” with it’s rolling seven-day average now standing at 606, down from 701 on Sept. 1.
In a series of messages posted to Twitter on Tuesday afternoon, the science table said that Ontario is currently “walking a narrow ledge” with case counts increasing in 19 of the province’s 34 health units as well as among the cohort of school-aged children that are not yet eligible to be vaccinated (ages 5 to 11).
The scientists also warned that it is “too early to see the impact of increased contacts with return to school and workplaces,” creating further uncertainty as we head into October.
“The bottom line: we’re doing well for now. But if we want to control cases, hospitalizations and deaths we must increase vaccination rates again and keep current public health measures to limit contacts until many more (& younger) Ontarians are vaxxed,” they said.
Hospitalizations are likely to rise but not rapidly
Hospitalizations in Ontario slowly rose through much of August as the Delta-driven fourth wave of the pandemic unfolded but have been mostly steady for several weeks now.
The modelling released by the science table on Tuesday said that the current trajectory that we are on suggests that there will be a gradual increase in the number of COVID patients in the ICU from 180 as of Monday night to closer to 300 by the end of October.
But it also says that any high risk of a rapid increase in ICU occupancy can be negated “with a cautious approach and early contact reductions.”
In fact, the scientists say that Ontario’s favourable situation compared to some other provinces is likely due to the fact that “we’ve kept enough public health measures in place to keep some control on contacts,” even as businesses reopened and larger gatherings were permitted.
“Today’s modelling further reinforces that as a result of Ontario’s extremely cautious approach, including maintaining strong public health measures such as indoor masking, the province’s public health and health care indicators remain stable or are improving,” a spokesperson for Minister of Health Christine Elliott said in a statement provided to media outlets. “In fact, Ontario continues to report one of the lowest rates of active cases in the country, well below the national average, as we have trended toward the best-case scenario projected in the last modelling.”
More to come...
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
What to know about avian influenza in dairy cows and the risk to humans
Why is H5N1, or bird flu, a concern, how does it spread, and is there a vaccine? Here are the answers to some frequently asked questions about avian influenza.
'I was scared': Ontario man's car repossessed after missing two repair loan payments
An Ontario man who took out a loan to pay for auto repairs said his car was repossessed after he missed two payments.
opinion The special relationship between King Charles and the Princess of Wales
Royal commentator Afua Hagan writes that when King Charles recently admitted Catherine to the Order of the Companions of Honour, it not only made history, but it reinforced the strong bond between the King and his beloved daughter-in-law.
Man convicted of involuntary manslaughter in father's drowning, told police he was baptizing him
A Massachusetts man who told police he was exorcising a demon and performing a baptism when he shoved his father's head under water multiple times has been convicted of involuntary manslaughter in his death.
New Norad commander calls Canada's defence policy update 'very encouraging'
American troops will be spending more time training in the Far North, the new commander of Norad says, a strategy that fits 'hand-in-glove' with Canada's renewed focus on Arctic defence.
$70M Lotto Max winners kept prize a secret from family for 2 months
During a special winner celebration near their hometown, Doug and Enid shared the story of how they discovered they were holding a Lotto Max ticket worth $70 million and how they kept this huge secret for so long.
Are Canadians getting sick from expired food?
A new survey by Dalhousie University's Agri-Food Analytics Lab asked Canadians about their food consumption habits amid rising prices.
Documents reveal Ottawa's efforts to get Loblaw, Walmart on board with grocery code
It was evident to the federal government as early as last fall that Loblaw and Walmart might be holdouts to the grocery code of conduct, jeopardizing the project's success.
Charlie Woods, son of Tiger, shoots 81 in U.S. Open qualifier
Charlie Woods failed to advance in a U.S. Open local qualifying event Thursday, shooting a 9-over 81 at Legacy Golf & Tennis Club.