How will rising inflation influence voters on election day?

The cost of living continues to be an issue driving voters this election period, especially in northern Ontario where residents are feeling the impacts of rising inflation more than others.

A recent Nanos survey conducted for CTV News and CP24 showed that about 80 per cent of respondents listed cost of living as their top priority, topped only by healthcare.

This could be in part due to climbing inflation, which reached a three-decade high in April at 6.8 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.

A data analysis by Environics Analytics found that food costs, in addition to transportation, were impacted the most by inflation in April. According to Statistics Canada, food costs rose 8.8 per cent compared with a year ago overall.

“Everyone feels the impact of price inflation, but in April, transportation and food had much higher inflation than other categories, which means that those who spend disproportionate share of their household expenditures on these categories will feel the increase more than most,” Senior Vice President of Environics Analytics Rupen Seoni said.

“No voter segment has come anywhere near keeping up with the rate of inflation, but some have done marginally better than others, dampening the effect of rising prices somewhat.”

The two voting populations that spend the most of their income on food and transportation are Indigenous families, lower-income couples and single individuals found in mid-sized cities outside of the Greater Toronto Area.

Both groups tended to vote NDP in the 2018 election.

The following map shows which regions spend the most on food and transportation and breaks down.

Can’t see the map? Click here.

View the full-screen version of this interactive map by Esri Canada with Environics Analytics data.

Those less impacted by inflation are typically well-educated young professionals living in larger cities such as Toronto and Ottawa, as they spend less of their income on transportation and food while also enjoying some of the highest income growth.

“This is a reflection of their downtown lifestyles which means they drive less, lack of children which keeps food budgets low, and their in-demand skills in what has been a tight labour market which has given them larger-than-average income growth,” Seoni said.

Close races deeply impacted by rising inflation. (Environics Analytics)

Of the 12 ridings most impacted by rising inflation, five were tight races in the last provincial election. All but one were won by the Progressive Conservatives.

In Brampton Centre, the NDP edged out the Liberals by just 0.2 percentage points.

Most political parties have made affordability promises they hope will relieve some of this pressure. Among those related to food and transportation are the PC’s licence plate renewal fees and the Liberals’ pledge to remove HST on food items under $20.