Doug Ford and PCs in 'majority government territory' as election speculation builds: poll

The province's next fixed election date is in June 2026, but Premier Doug Ford set off alarm bells in political circles this past May when he repeatedly refused to commit to that date at a press conference. Ford walks through the halls of the Ontario legislature after speaking to media, in Toronto, Monday, May 6, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

Doug Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservative party appear to have a sizeable lead among voters as speculation continues to build about a potential early election call, a new poll suggests.

The Liaison Strategies poll of 1,245 Ontario voters found that Ford and the Tories had the support of 40 per cent of respondents who are decided or leaning, compared to 27 per cent for the Liberals and 21 per cent for the NDP. The Green party were in fourth at six per cent.

The Tories support was up two points from a similar Liaison Strategies poll conducted in July while the support for Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals was down two points.

It should be noted that about one fifth of poll respondents (21 per cent) remain undecided.

Among all voters, Ford and the Tories has the support of 33 per cent of respondents compared to 21 per cent for the Liberals, 16 per cent for the NDP and four per cent for the Greens.

"This is a mostly great news poll for Doug Ford. We are seeing his numbers improve in Toronto, his lead is increasing in the 905 and in the rest of Ontario he is pretty much cruising so I think right now, if there was an election called today, we would see them return with a majority government. Though, of course we don’t know how Ontarians would react to an early election call,” David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, told CP24 on Thursday morning. 

The province's next fixed election date isn't until June 2026 but Ford has dodged questions about whether he will commit to that timeline, prompting some to speculate about whether an election could be called sooner.

The Liaison Strategies poll found that a higher percentage of respondents had a favourable opinion of Ford (28 per cent) than Liberal Liberal Bonnie Crombie (27 per cent), NDP Leader Marit Stiles (24 per cent) or Green Leader Mike Schreiner (23 per cent).

However, the poll suggested that a higher proportion of respondents had an unfavourable opinion of Ford (65 per cent) when compared to Crombie (42 per cent), Stiles (22 per cent) and Schreiner (19 per cent).

Speaking with CP24, Valentin said that polling by his firm and others has shown that there “really hasn’t been much of a Honeymoon bounce” for Crombie since taking over as leader in January.

“We have seen the Ontario PC party air these attack ads against Bonnie Crombie, airing in some pretty high placements during NHL and MLB games. And now we are seeing the results of that,” he said. “The challenge for Bonnie Crombie now is to introduce herself to voters in a more positive way and that challenge also extends to Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner since most Ontarians are telling us they don’t know very much about either of them.” 

Support for the Tories was the highest in southwestern Ontario where they have a 19-point lead on the NDP but the party is also competitive in Toronto, where they trail the Liberals by just three points (a statistical tie). In the 905 region outside of Toronto, the Tories had the support of 45 per cent of respondents compared to 39 per cent for the Liberals.

The poll was conducted on behalf of the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada through Interactive Voice Recording on Aug, 19 and 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.71 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 but is higher for sub samples.