Surge in gas prices in Toronto-area just the 'beginning,' analyst says

The recent surge in the cost of gas in the GTA may only be the “beginning” of elevated prices at the pumps this spring, one industry analyst warns.

Canadians for Affordable Energy President Dan McTeague said drivers in southern Ontario have seen the cost of gas jump by 12 cents per litre this past week alone. According to his website, the average price of gas in the GTA currently sits at around $1.59 per litre.

“It looks like we are only at the beginning of what could be a 20 cent (per litre) increase between now and say the May 24 weekend or July the 1st,” McTeague told CP24 on Monday.

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He said while there are “a lot of factors” that dictate the price of gas, three things will guarantee an uptick in cost in the coming months.

“Oil is going to be moving up about seven or eight dollars a barrel. That will be good for about a 10 cents a litre increase,” he said.

“We know that mid-April we have the switch over (to) summer blends of gasoline (from) winter blends of gasoline. It does cost more for refiners to produce that particular blend.”

He added that the increase in the federal carbon tax will also push the price of gas up.

“All of those factors mean that (another) 20 cents (per litre) is definitely penciled in but it could be much higher,” he said.

“Last summer, we didn’t see hurricane activity in the U.S. gulf coast. We didn’t see much in the way of any unusual refinery issues or factors that would have adversely affected supply. This issue really is about supply and demand. Supply is not meeting the surging demand, especially in the United States.”