As residents in Ontario cottage country wade through days’ worth of flood damage, the threat of more rain could worsen an already dire situation.
A rainfall warning is currently in effect for the Parry Sound – Muskoka area, including Bracebridge, Gravenhurst, Huntsville, Baysville, Port Carling, Port Severn, Parry Sound, Roseau and Killbear Park. Minden Hills and Haliburton are also expected to be affected.
The region could see as much as 35 milimetres of rain by Thursday morning.
“The ground has limited ability to absorb further rainfall,” Environment Canada warned in an advisory, issued Tuesday morning. “Some areas will begin as snow or ice pellets before changing to rain in the morning. Local snow and ice pellet amounts of two centimetres are possible.”
The forecast follows more than a week of flood conditions exacerbated by rapidly rising water levels.
[By the numbers: How floods are impacting Canada]
A state of emergency was declared in Bracebridge last week, with Minden Hills, Huntsville, and Muskoka Lakes Township also declaring emergencies soon afterward.
While officials said Monday that water levels have begun to go down, the imminent rain has many bracing for another blow.
Soldiers from the Canadian military were called to the area to help fill sandbags and assist in emergency evacuations, as needed. An additional 60 will be deployed today, bringing the total number of personnel on site to approximately 160.
A drinking water advisory remains in place for those in the region using well water, with residents being told to assume the water is not drinkable for the time being.
The surging floodwaters hit historic records over the weekend and have since exceeded the level reached during devastating floods in 2013.
Bracebridge Mayor Graydon Smith said the 2013 event was “river-focused” whereas the current situation involves both the rivers and lake “to a higher degree.”
He remains hopeful that the past two days of dry conditions allowed enough water to move on, so that levels don’t spike like they did last week.
“Any amount of rain will raise Lake Muskoka a marginal amount…Hopefully the impacts will be marginal,” he said during a news conference on Tuesday.
“What it will do again is delay the extent of recovery. So, we’re hoping that we don’t see as much rain as is forecast.”
Bracebridge Bay Park remains under water and 15 roads are still closed, cutting off access to some parts of the town. Beautmont Drive continues to be passable for local traffic after being restructured by town crews last week.
Stagecoach Road will be grated today to provide an alternate route to access Stephens Bay.
Santa’s Village Road has been washed out and parts of the theme park are under water. The town is currently working to secure the shoreline to avoid erosion.
The Beaumont and Alport areas are still considered to be heavily hit, while Springdale Shores, which was the first district to require evacuation, is “down to 2013 levels,” the mayor said.
Many residents have evacuated, but others have decided to ride it out. Seasonal home owners in the area have been asked to put off checking on their cottages until further notice.
“In some cases, I think we’ve had a few people each day say, ‘Ok, that’s enough, it’s time to go somewhere else,’” Smith said. “The people we get asking for assistance or asking to leave is probably under 10 a day at this point.”
Smith said it will be some time before a proper damage assessment can be made, noting that a cumulative total might not be accurate until the upcoming Victoria Day weekend, when cottagers return. However, he said he believes the number of impacted properties will “easily exceed” the tally in 2013.
A plan is in the works for those looking to dispose of waterlogged property and debris.
“Folks from the province have been up here and have been able to tour the area yesterday and understand the scope of the damage,” Smith said. “So when we get that point it will make the conversation a little bit easier because they will have some context.”
In the meantime, Smith said the town has developed a “pretty strong database” of affected residents using its central contact point, 211.
Residents are being urged to continue checking in as the rain conditions change on Tuesday.
Smith expressed concerns for the well-being of those who have chosen to stay at their properties and said residents should not hesitate to provide 211 with an update of their own personal health and wellness.
“They’re not sleeping, they’re not getting the rest they require, they’re constantly under stress. There’s lots of people out there like that,” he said.
“The 211 number is a great resource for people who feel like they need something, even if they can’t quite articulate what they need. Maybe they’re just tired and worn down to a nub. They should let us know that and we can try and help.”
[A look at sandbags as a flood-prevention tool]
On Maplewood Road, just outside of Bracebridge, residents have been fighting a losing battle.
Bill Talbot has been working to save his home for days.
“If it breaches that little berm over there now, we’ll be into hell,” he said, pointing to a small strip of land just on the outskirt of his property.
“Because then the current will be washing into here and this will become the river.”
Bracebridge Bay Park remains under water and 17 roads are still closed, cutting off access to some parts of the town. Many residents have evacuated, but others have decided to ride it out. Seasonal home owners in the area have been asked to put off checking on their cottages until further notice.
In Huntsville, water levels have come down slightly, but not enough.
Huge portions of the town remain under water, including Moose Delaney’s Sports Bar and Grill.
“In the last two days, I would say it dropped about five inches,” said owner Dan Barkwell.
But that’s not nearly low enough to reopen, which has left Barkwell worried about what the extended eight-day closure will do for his bottom line.
“Sales for a week are around $25,000,” he said.
About 70 kilometres to the southwest, in Moon River, Ont., residents have been urged to consider evacuating.
Many homeowners who thought they had prepared after the 2013 flood have found themselves in a familiar situation.
Dave Stoddart and his daughter spent much of the weekend sandbagging the perimeter of his home. On Monday, they set up a pipe to drain as much water as they could from the porch.
“We had enough of a moat around it that we could turn the pump on,” he said. “We were about one brick short of the water entering the residence at that time.”
With files from CTV News Toronto's Sean Leathong and the Canadian Press