Ontario's 2022 election will be a referendum on how Doug Ford handled the pandemic, experts say
The Progressive Conservative Party has a significant financial foothold a year ahead of the next provincial election, as political strategists say the 2022 vote will serve as a referendum of Doug Ford’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
It was in 2018 that Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party overturned 15 years of Liberal governance in Ontario with the promise of economic growth and “prosperity the likes of which this province has never known before.”
Four years later, Ford’s future in provincial politics will likely be dictated by his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic instead—a fact not lost on the Progressive Conservatives as they worked over the last six months to solidify political contributions through email campaigns and $1,000-a-ticket virtual fundraisers.
According to party contribution data submitted to Elections Ontario, the Progressive Conservative Party raised more than $2 million in political contributions in the first five months of 2021—nearly three times as much as the other three political parties combined.
The Ontario New Democratic Party comes in second with about $332,813, followed by the Ontario Liberal Party with $233,464 and the Green party with $151,607.
The fundraising lead will be crucial for the Progressive Conservatives, as they fight to regain the confidence of some voters who seemingly turned their backs on the party during the pandemic.
Recent opinion polls saw the party fall to second place behind the Ontario Liberal Party in successive surveys during April and May, before rebounding in the past few weeks.
Still, conservative strategist Jamie Ellerton—a former political staffer at Queen’s Park, who also worked on the 2019 election campaign for the federal Conservative Party—believes the government’s handling of the pandemic will be front and center on voters' minds even one year from now.
“I think this election is going to be a referendum on Doug Ford and his government, that'll be the main focal point of it,” Ellerton said.
“I think it's very much up for debate as to how he will fare on that.”
Other political strategists say the 2022 election could also have personal consequences for several other leaders if the outcomes fall short of the expectations.
Jim Warren, who served as a communication advisor to former Premier Dalton McGuinty, believes NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has the most to lose during this election—her fourth as leader of the provincial New Democrats.
“This has got to be her last chance to become premier… she's either going to be a premier or she's going to be a private citizen,” Warren said.
While Horwath captured 40 seats during the 2018 election—the highest seat count since Bob Rae’s NDP government in the early 1990s—recent opinion polls have seen the party fall back into third place as the Ontario Liberals gain momentum.
Warren said Steven Del Duca, who was elected Liberal Leader in March 2020, will have an uphill challenge during the 2022 election as a result of low recognition and a hollowed out bank account.
The party recently announced it had paid off its $10 million election debt stemming from the disastrous 2018 vote, which saw the party reduced from a majority government to holding seven seats in the Ontario legislature.
But it’s Ford who stands to lose the most, strategists say, should the election results fall short of the expected result.
“Doug Ford has to win this election and keep the majority, otherwise the knives will be out—because he's so polarizing and because of some of the decisions he's made in government,” Warren said.
Ellerton believes the premier will need to own up to mistakes ahead of the election campaign to soothe the bitter feelings among the public.
“The more stonewalling the PC’s do to pretend that there was no wrongdoing or that mistakes weren't made just further erodes his credibility,” Ellerton said.
CTV News Toronto has reported that Ford’s advisors have already pulled the premier back from the limelight, limiting his exposure and allowing other ministers to “wear” the decision they make -- something strategists believe will help.
“Often in politics, absence makes the heart grow fonder,” Warren said.
With files from CTV News Toronto's Katherine DeClerq
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING Another suspect arrested in Toronto Pearson airport gold heist: police
Another suspect is in custody in connection with the gold heist at Toronto Pearson International Airport last year, police say.
BREAKING Justin and Hailey Bieber are expecting their first child together
Hailey and Justin Bieber are going to be parents. The couple announced the news on Thursday on Instagram, both sharing a video that showcases Hailey Bieber's growing belly.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Poilievre-led government 'would never' use notwithstanding clause on abortion, his office says
A Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre would not legislate on, nor use the notwithstanding clause, on abortion, his office says, as anti-abortion protesters gather on Parliament Hill.
Ontario family receives massive hospital bill as part of LTC law, refuses to pay
A southwestern Ontario woman has received an $8,400 bill from a hospital in Windsor, Ont., after she refused to put her mother in a nursing home she hated -- and she says she has no intention of paying it.
Here are the ultraprocessed foods you most need to avoid, according to a 30-year study
Studies have shown that ultraprocessed foods can have a detrimental impact on health. But 30 years of research show they don’t all have the same impact.
Miss Teen USA steps down just days after Miss USA's resignation
Miss Teen USA resigned Wednesday, sending further shock waves through the pageant community just days after Miss USA said she would relinquish her crown.
Why these immigrants to Canada say they're thinking about leaving, or have already moved on
For some immigrants, their dreams of permanently settling in Canada have taken an unexpected twist.
Cyclist strikes child crossing the street to catch school bus in Montreal
A video circulating on social media of a young girl being hit by a bike has some calling for better safety and more caution when designing bike lanes in the city. The video shows a four-year-old girl crossing Jeanne-Mance Street in Montreal's Plateau neighbourhood to get on a school bus stopped on the opposite side of the street