Why the outcome of one Toronto byelection could be consequential for Trudeau, Poilievre
The stakes are high in a looming June 24 federal byelection in a long-held Liberal riding in Toronto, and if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's party shows signs of slipping, it could spark a bigger conversation, pollster Nik Nanos says.
"I think a lot of people are going to be reading the entrails on this because we are getting closer to the election. Byelections are sometimes referendums on the government of the day," Nanos said on the latest episode of CTV News' Trend Line.
"If it's close, that'll create for some … nervous Nellies in the Liberal caucus, and it's going to be interesting to see what happens."
The Ontario riding, Toronto-St. Paul's, is a textbook definition of a Liberal stronghold, within an overall Liberal fortress in Toronto.
Though, with Trudeau's national and personal polling numbers looking dire, political observers are speculating that if Liberal support slips considerably, or if the party loses the seat, it could trigger more forceful questions about the prime minister's future.
Murmurs about whether Trudeau is considering stepping down — and who might be the contenders contemplating runs to replace him — have been swirling for months, despite the prime minister's repeated assertions that he does not intend to step aside before the next federal election.
Nanos said as much as Liberal loyalists may try to mobilize after the byelection if their party doesn't put up a strong showing, they too could be buoyed by the results, snuffing out the simmering leadership speculation.
"If the Liberals do as well in the byelection as they do in the general election, it'll be like that song, 'Don't worry, be happy,'" Nanos said.
The other element CTV News' pollster is keeping a close eye on is whether Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will be the Official Opposition leader to help his party break through in the Toronto area.
"If the Conservatives are starting to do better in the city of Toronto, just multiply that … when it comes to the suburbs … that means that they're probably going to be even more of a force in the surrounding Toronto suburban area," Nanos said.
Beyond this, with a record-setting number of candidates on the ballot, there's lots to watch with this race. With less than two weeks to go until e-day, here's what you need to know.
Riding history, candidate info
The riding has been Liberal-held for three decades, with the latest seat occupant Carolyn Bennett winning the seat in 1997, before going on to hold it in the several elections that followed.
That chair in the House of Commons became vacant earlier this year when the family doctor-turned cabinet minister stepped down. She's since been appointed as Canada's ambassador to Denmark.
In her last election in 2021, the margin of victory between her and the runner-up Conservative opponent was considerable, but not as wide as it had been in 2019. Bennett secured the seat with 49.2 per cent of the vote in 2021, with 26,429 of the 53,698 valid ballots cast, while the Conservative candidate took about 25 per cent of the vote. Byelection turnouts are historically lower than in general elections.
Running to replace Bennett and keep the riding Liberal red is Leslie Church, who previously worked as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's chief of staff. Church has also worked at Google and the University of Toronto, between political staffer positions.
The Conservative candidate is Don Stewart, an employee at the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Stewart has both engineering and business degrees, and has spent time working on Bay Street.
The federal NDP candidate is non-profit director and community organizer Amrit Parhar, and running for the Greens is self-described political operations professional Christian Cullis.
Poilievre, Trudeau campaign
While not uncommon for byelection candidates to be joined door-knocking by sitting MPs and top party faces, there's been no shortage of high-profile campaigners out on the hustings in the lead-up to, and since Trudeau called this race last month.
Among those out talking to voters with Church have been the prime minister, his deputy and her former boss Freeland, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, Defence Minister Bill Blair, Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, Trade Minister Mary Ng, Health Minister Mark Holland, Justice Minister Arif Virani and several other high-ranking Liberals.
"As a strong progressive voice, she'll be an excellent advocate for her community," Fraser said in a social media post sharing pictures of his door-knocking day.
Visits from Poilievre in April and May, as well as his deputy, Melissa Lantsman, have bolstered Stewart's ground game. Conservative MPs Andrew Scheer, Anna Roberts and Arpan Khanna have also hit the doors.
"Workers here are sick of a government that taxes food, punishes work, doubles housing costs and unleashes crime and chaos in the community," Poilievre said, posting about one of his stop-ins.
Nanos questioned whether Poilievre and his party would be showing as much face-time in the riding if they didn't think they'd have a respectable showing.
How motivated the Liberal and Conservative voters are in that riding will be a key question, he said.
Nanos is also keeping an eye on what will happen with the NDP support.
"In the other byelections we've seen NDP support decline and the Liberals gain at the very last minute, I'm sure Justin Trudeau is probably hoping for something like that in Toronto-St. Paul's," Nanos said.
Historically long ballot
Advance polls open on Friday and run from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time through Monday, June 17, before the big day on June 24 when polls open from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m.
And, when voters in this riding are handed their ballots, they may be in for a surprise.
In a historic first, there are more candidates to choose from in this riding than in any other federal race before.
Elections Canada has confirmed that this byelection has the longest ballot in the history of federal elections, with 84 candidates in the running.
This is a result of a coordinated effort by electoral reform advocacy group the "Longest Ballot Committee" that hopes its attempt at having some fun with how elections are run can give voters a moment of reflection, when casting their ballot, about how democracy could work better.
Previously, the largest number of candidates on a single ballot was 48, in the 2023 Winnipeg South Centre, Man., byelection, also a result of this group's work.
To accommodate the onslaught of names, Elections Canada is using a unique two-column ballot that will also be larger than usual.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode and our last one of this season comes out Thursday, June 20.
IN DEPTH
Why the outcome of one Toronto byelection could be consequential for Trudeau, Poilievre
The stakes are high in a looming June 24 federal byelection in a long-held Liberal riding in Toronto, and if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's party shows signs of slipping, it could spark a bigger conversation, CTV News' pollster Nik Nanos says.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Smith tells Trudeau Alberta will opt out of federal dental plan
Alberta is opting out of the federal dental plan, the premier told the Canadian government late Tuesday afternoon.
One of Canada's most popular vehicles recalled over transmission issue; 95,000 impacted
One of the country's most popular vehicles is being recalled in Canada due to a transmission issue that may impact tens of thousands of drivers.
WikiLeaks' Assange pleads guilty in deal with U.S. that secures his freedom, ends legal fight
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has pleaded guilty to obtaining and publishing U.S. military secrets in a deal with Justice Department prosecutors that secures his liberty and concludes a drawn-out legal saga that raised divisive questions about press freedom and national security.
'We need to regroup,' says Liberal minister and Ontario campaign co-chair in light of byelection loss
A member of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's cabinet and the party's Ontario co-chair for the next campaign says the Liberals 'need to regroup' after a shocking overnight byelection loss to Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
Pre-med students can't take MCAT in Quebec because of Bill 96
Areeba Ahmed says she's always dreamed of becoming a surgeon but her road to the operating room has become a complicated one ever since Quebec's French language law came into effect.
Protesters try to topple Queen Victoria statue near pro-Palestinian encampment in Montreal
Montreal police were called to intervene after protesters attempted to tear down the Queen Victoria statue at Victoria Square.
Cup Noodles serves up notoriously poisonous pufferfish
Pufferfish is regarded as a luxury in Japan and a meal featuring the potentially poisonous delicacy can easily cost up to 20,000 yen (US$125) at high-end restaurants.
'Truly a great British Columbian': Former B.C. premier John Horgan has cancer again
Former B.C. premier and current Canadian ambassador to Germany John Horgan has been diagnosed with cancer for a third time.
New experience in Halifax gets people up close and personal to the ocean's most feared predator
Atlantic Shark Expeditions launched a new shark cage experience which gives brave attendees a chance to get up close and personal with the oceans most feared predator.
Local Spotlight
'I just really like the sport': Meet the 90-year-old local slo-pitch player still living out his passion
Bill Neald is still living out his passion of playing baseball at the age of 90 in Regina’s Senior Mixed Slo-Pitch League.
Bracebridge, Ont. man who lost his life trying to save another honoured posthumously
A Bracebridge man who died trying to save a distressed swimmer nearly four years ago is being recognized among 18 others for their extraordinary acts of heroism.
'It's a tradition': Titanic model returning to Halifax Public Gardens
For the first time in two years, a model of the RMS Titanic will return to the Halifax Public Gardens, thanks in part to public demand.
Where is Louis Riel? Heritage Minute of Métis leader quietly removed
A decision to quietly remove a decades-old Heritage Minute on Louis Riel has left some in the Métis community scratching their heads, as questions are raised about how Canada's history is portrayed.
New pup taking over as Victim Services Toronto's trauma dog
There's a changing of the guard at Victim Services Toronto, as one trauma dog hangs up her harness and another reports for duty.
Satellite imagery confirms 5 tornadoes hit Quebec during June 13 storm
The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) out of Western University in Ontario confirmed that five tornadoes touched down in Quebec during the June 13 storm, bringing the total number of tornadoes in the project to six.
'Historic victory': Judge orders Quebec to pay taxi drivers $143 million for abolishing permits
A Superior Court judge has ordered the Quebec government to pay taxi drivers $143 million in compensation for its decision to abolish their permits nearly five years ago.
This 16-year-old is U of T's youngest graduate since at least 1979
Honciuc Menendez is barely old enough to get a driver’s licence but on Friday he’ll officially graduate from the University of Toronto with distinction.
Deer makes unexpected visit to Ottawa apartment
Police say a deer gained entry to a basement apartment in Ottawa's west end this week and refused to leave.