Gas prices will be stable for long weekend but could spike next week: analyst

Gas prices will be mostly stable for a long weekend that is widely considered to be the kickoff to the summer driving season but at least one industry analyst is warning that there could be higher prices at the pump by this time next week.

Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, tells CP24 that the average price of a litre of regular fuel in the GTA will rise by one cent to 164.9 cents per litre overnight and could potentially go up by another cent on Sunday.

But McTeague said that the increases are not significant in the context of a Victoria Day long weekend that many often associate with higher prices at the pump.

“It looks like we are really going to avoid that usual idea that gas prices go up on a long weekend but what is critical to understand is we don’t make gas prices in Canada, in fact they are largely determined by the U.S.,” he said. “Because their Memorial Day long weekend doesn’t happening until next week we are unlikely to see any major spikes until Thursday or Friday of next week. At that point if it is anything like the last 30 years I have been doing this we are probably going to see a seven cent increase and we will be back at $1.70 to $1.72 per litre.”

Gas prices in the GTA hit a two-year high of 179 cents per litre back in mid-April with the switchover to summer fuel but since then drivers have gotten a little bit of relief.

McTeague, in fact, said that gas prices have come down approximately 16 cents a litre over the last month after going up 14 cents on April 18.

While that has been a relief for some drivers, he said that it is important to remember that prices are still up about 10 cents per litre compared to this time last year.

“There is a couple factors there. We didn’t have the four cent increase on the carbon tax (last year) and we had a stronger Canadian dollar that shielded us from another two cents a litre,” he said. “We have also seen oil move up from about $73 or $74 a barrel to $79 a barrel.”

In 2022 gas prices surged due to a number of geopolitical factors and at one point hit a record 214.9 cents per litre in the GTA.