New polling numbers suggest that the Ontario NDP currently enjoy a narrow lead in the race to form the next government at Queen’s Park, with the Ontario PC Party just two points behind them.
The Mainstreet Research poll surveyed 1,682 voters from May 27 to May 28.
The poll found that the NDP currently sit at 39.3 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, while the PCs sit at 37.3 per cent. The Ontario Liberal Party sits at 16 per cent and the Green Party of Ontario has 4.5 per cent support.
The latest Mainstreet poll puts the NDP up 10 points from Mainstreet’s previous poll on May 18, while it indicates a dip of nearly five per cent for the PC Party.
“Doug Ford has blown the large lead he had in March and the Ontario election is a competitive affair,” Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi said in a news release attached to the poll. “The question facing Ontarians is whether Ford or Andrea Horwath will get the keys to government for the next four years.”
Other polls released last week also put the NDP in the lead, with a Forum Research poll putting their support as high as 47 per cent.
The latest Mainstreet numbers show that support for the governing Liberals has continued to wither.
“Given where the Liberals are at in terms of popular support, it is looking more and more likely that Ontario will elect a majority government – the only question is whether it’s the PCs or the NDP that will form it,” Maggi said. “It is doubtful that the Liberals will win more than a handful of seats which very much narrows the path for a minority government.”
The poll was conducted prior to Sunday night’s televised debate, so it is not yet known whether the leaders’ performances moved the needle in any way.
Broken down by region, the poll shows the NDP enjoy strong support in Toronto (40.9 per cent) as well as South Central Ontario (50.3 per cent) and Southwestern Ontario (44.4 per cent).
The PCs draw their strongest support in the 905 areas (42.1 per cent) and Eastern Ontario (43.7 per cent).
“What our daily tracker and our riding polls have been showing is that there is a large divide between urban and rural Ontario where the NDP are leading in urban areas and the PCs dominating in the rural parts of the province,” Maggi said. “Because there are more seats in the rural areas, we think that Ford and the PCs still have the edge over the NDP – just.
“We think the NDP will need to go up another three points or so to win. Otherwise, Horwath could find herself winning the popular vote but in opposition.”
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.39 per cent and is considered accurate 19 times out of 20.
