TORONTO - Canadians hoping for a milder winter than last year's may have reason for cautious optimism, says a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
"It's like a moving target," David Phillips said of this year's winter forecast. "But it's rare that you would have two back-to-back winters like that.
"I would bet a good sum of money on the fact we will not have a repeat of last year from a snow point of view."
Environment Canada's forecast issued Saturday for November through early January offers some hope to Canadians looking for kinder conditions than last winter, which punished Canadians in the east with record-breaking snowfall and those in the west with bitter cold.
For the first half of this winter, Environment Canada is expecting milder than normal temperatures from the Great Lakes eastward.
The southern and central Prairies are expected to see near-normal temperatures, with the northern Prairies, most of B.C. and the Arctic below normal.
Assuming the forecast holds true, "it won't seem nearly as harsh from a temperature point of view as last year," Phillips said.
Precipitation is expect to be near normal in the eastern half of the country, while most of the Prairie provinces are expected to see normal to above-normal amounts of snow.
That's particularly good news for Alberta, which is home to a number of skiing and snowboarding resorts.
"We need snow to meet those expectations, that's for sure," said Travel Alberta communications director Don Boynton.
In neighbouring B.C., the forecast predicts normal to below-normal amounts of precipitation, but tourism operators are hopeful that won't affect tourism.
"Everyone's fingers are crossed about a big snow year - that's helpful for any activity," said Anthony Everett, CEO of the Northern B.C. Tourism Association.
The weather won't be the only factor influencing whether tourists flock to winter resorts. Turmoil in global financial markets has some tourism operators fearing a massive downturn in business as people tighten their purse strings.
But Everett said he hopes a recent dramatic decline in gas prices will encourage visitors to turn out, though he noted that ideal weather is still the most important factor.
Boynton said the Alberta tourism industry doesn't appear to have suffered despite the carnage in global markets.
"We're actually outperforming the rest of the country, insofar as international visitation to Alberta is concerned," Boynton said.
Canadians had better hope Environment Canada's forecast is accurate. European forecast models are less optimistic, and the Canadian version of the Farmer's Almanac calls for a tough winter across the country.
Phillips said the uncertainty in forecasting this winter lies with the fact there is no El Nino or La Nina - ocean-atmosphere phenomena in the Pacific Ocean that influence global weather patterns.
"It's what people call La Nada - it's a neutral situation out there," Phillips said. "The Pacific doesn't seem to be a factor so much in this particular winter."
The traditional December to February winter forecast from Environment Canada is expected to be released in late November.
