Will he or won't he? Signs that Ford may call an early Ontario election stack up

Inside Ontario's legislature, the halls are decked, the sounds of children’s choirs singing Christmas carols waft down the corridors, and in the air there’s a feeling of an election. 

Staff and politicians alike are abuzz with early election speculation, seeing signs big and small stacking up as the legislature prepares for its winter break.

Some see the government's fast-tracking of several bills as an indication it wants to clear the legislative decks before a spring election call. Others point to a year-end deadline Premier Doug Ford has given his Progressive Conservative caucus members to decide if they'll stand for re-election. 

Some say the $200 "rebate" cheques the government plans to mail to Ontario households early in the new year are evidence an election will soon follow, while others note that government ad spending is at the highest level ever.

Buzz has been building since Ford repeatedly refused to rule out calling an election earlier than the fixed June 2026 date at a press conference this spring.

All of it has the opposition parties and special interest groups reading the tea leaves and ensuring their own election planning is well underway.

"I'm hearing what everybody else is, that there are definitely plans afoot to consider calling the election early," said Liberal campaign co-chair Genevieve Tomney. 

"So from my perch, the most important thing that I can do is work with my team to be ready."

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has already made two platform announcements, using "Team Bonnie" in place of "the Ontario Liberal Party" in some of the accompanying materials, and the party is introducing the new leader to voters through an ad campaign. In that case, the pre-election buzz is helpful, Tomney said.

"I always want to make sure that we are using our resources and coming out with a strong message at a time when people are actually prepared to hear it and to do something about it," she said. 

"If we were to have launched an ad six months ago, I'm not sure that people would be in the head space to want to really start to explore what the alternative to Doug Ford looks like."

Third parties such as teachers' unions are also taking notice of early election speculation and preparing ad campaigns of their own. They are jointly funding anti-Ford ads under the banner of Ontario Forward, reminiscent of the former Working Families Coalition that spent millions in advertising against the Progressive Conservatives in past elections.

The Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation is also rolling out its own campaign called Ford High, meant to highlight a litany of problems in schools.

"I don't enter into a conversation these days without somebody saying, 'What do you think about the election?' and 'When is it going to be?' and that people need to be aware and need to be mobilized," said OSSTF president Karen Littlewood.

"I think we've all placed our bets. I've changed my bets a few times, but right now I'm going for end of March or end of April...It will cost the citizens of Ontario a lot of money to have an election right now, when we don't need to have it until June of '26, yet if this is the direction that the government wants to go, to cement their pathway forward, we have to be prepared."

Only one person truly knows whether Ford will pull the electoral trigger this spring. And even he may not be sure at this point.

Laryssa Waler, Ford's former director of communications, said one month ago she was sure the premier would call an early election, but now she isn't so certain.

"I think the premier has a lot of things he wants to get done, and he's kind of well on his way to doing those things, especially around infrastructure building — hospitals, long-term care, schools, the Ontario Line, two-way all-day GO, all those things," said Waler, principal at public affairs firm Henley Strategies. 

"I think he's trying to weigh, would those things happen faster and better if you went to an election now and got a bigger mandate or...is it better to just keep on chugging along?" 

NDP Leader Marit Stiles believes Ford is considering an early election for more selfish reasons.

"I understand why he's so concerned about the RCMP criminal investigation and (what) that's going to turn up," she said.

The RCMP is probing the government's process to remove 15 parcels of land from the protected Greenbelt lands to build 50,000 homes. Ford ultimately reversed his decision and returned the land to the Greenbelt after both the auditor general and integrity commissioner found that the process favoured certain developers.

Ford's office confirmed in August that the RCMP had started interviewing witnesses, but at that time that didn't include Ford himself. The premier has said he is confident nothing criminal took place.

Stiles said the NDP is working hard to nominate candidates and fundraise. The party touted recently that it had raised more than $825,000 from 15,640 contributions in a 60-day period.

"That means a lot to us because we know that those are folks who...need a government that's going to actually meet their needs, the working people of this province," she said.

The Liberals said they raised almost $2.5 million in 60 days, with more than half of that money coming from a large leader's dinner Crombie held last week. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 9, 2024.