Which Ontario voters are impacted by the licence plate renewal rebates?
The provincial government’s decision to scrap vehicle registration renewal fees in Ontario greatly benefits drivers living in ridings that mostly voted for the Progressive Conservatives in 2018, data suggests.
There are five voter groups with vehicle ownership rates above the provincial average—which stands at 1.7 per household. According to data by Environics Analytics, those five groups tend to favour the PCs.
“This initiative especially benefits Ontarians with higher rates of vehicle ownership because they would receive a larger refund cheque or savings on fees payable in the future,” Rupen Seoni, senior vice president of Environics Analytics, told CTV News Toronto.
“The segments that have the highest vehicle ownership also voted decisively PC.”
The voting groups are primarily made of a mix of suburban families, older couples and affluent city families.
This table shows the average vehicle owned per household, divided into Ontario voter segments. (Environics Analytics)
The Ontario government scrapped licence plate renewal and sticker fees for passenger vehicles, light duty trucks, motorcycles and mopeds as of March 13. Drivers who paid the fees after March 1, 2020 are entitled to a refund under this policy.
The measure will save many Ontario drivers up to $120 a year.
The Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer said the fees brought in $1.95 billion in revenue for the government in 2018-2019.
Neither the NDP, Liberals or Green Party have said they would reinstate renewal fees; however since the PCs were the party to introduce the measure, Seoni said it could give them an advantage.
“We find 12 ridings where the refund could help re-elect PC MPPs that won on thin margins or help overturn an incumbent from another party that squeaked out a win last time,” Seoni said.
“All were won by the PCs in 2018, except for two by the NDP. Most are in the GTA and southwestern Ontario.”
In all the ridings, the average vehicle ownership per household is also above the provincial average.
These ridings could be swayed by the licence plate renewal fee rebates. (Environics Analytics)
On the other side, the proposed “buck-a-ride” plan put forward by the Ontario Liberal Party could help them reclaim some ridings that previously voted NDP.
“Politically speaking, the most important segments to the Liberals who would benefit from this policy is Young in the City (who voted strongly for the NDP in 2018) and New Canadian Mosaic (who swung to the PCs and NDP in almost equal measures),” Seoni said. “These are two groups that could – and have – voted Liberal in the past. This policy could help them win some votes back.”
- EXPLAINER: Who are the voter segments?
Seoni says there are 13 ridings where the rate of public transit use is at least 50 per cent above the provincial average. Eleven of those ridings are in Toronto while the remaining two are in Ottawa.
“Considering the Liberals only had seven seats at dissolution of the legislature, it’s remarkable that four of them are in this list, and they won over the PCs by under four per cent every case, so these seats are critical for them.”
Ontario ridings where voters use transit the most and where the Liberals' "buck-a-ride" policy may impact. (Environics Analytics).
Under the Liberal plan, all transit fares in Ontario—including GO Transit—would be reduced to $1 until 2024. It is unclear what will happen to the fares after this time frame.
The Liberals say this plan would cost about about $710 million in 2022-23.
The map below shows the ridings with the voter segments that drive the most and how they voted in 2018. It also shows where voters who spend the most on transportation and own the most cars live.
Can’t see the map? Click here.
View the full-screen version of this interactive map by Esri Canada with Environics Analytics data.
Environics Analytics and CTV News are both owned by BCE Inc.
Toronto Top Stories
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
A law outlawing any dealings with the Taliban, which charities complain is impeding their ability to help needy Afghans, could be adjusted by the federal government to give more flexibility to aid agencies.
Russian forces are pounding the city of Lysychansk and its surroundings in an all-out attempt to seize the last stronghold of resistance in eastern Ukraine's Luhansk province, the governor said Saturday.
A new report from TD says Canadian home sales could fall by nearly one-quarter on average this year and remain low into 2023.
Biden intends to nominate a conservative, anti-abortion lawyer to federal judgeship, Kentucky Democrats say
U.S. President Joe Biden intends to nominate an anti-abortion Republican lawyer to a federal judgeship, two Kentucky Democrats informed of the decision say.
A California man has posted a widely-shared video in an attempt to educate people about the monkeypox virus outbreak, to encourage people to get vaccinated if they're eligible and to make it very clear: 'You do not want this.'
A prominent housing advocacy group fears Quebec could see an increase in households left without a permanent place to live as leases expire across the province on July 1.
Minecraft YouTuber Technoblade has died at the age of 23 following a year-long battle with cancer, his family announced Friday.
Infection with HIV can accelerate aging within the first two to three years of infection, study says
Living with HIV may have an immediate effect on how your body ages, according to new research which showed that cellular aging was sped up within two to three years of infection.
Quebec’s provincial police force is revamping its cold-case website with intentions of making it more user-friendly, and hopefully leading to resolutions to previously dead-end investigations.
A motorist died after suffering serious injuries in a collision early Friday evening in Quebec’s Montérégie region.
London police and London fire are investigating after fire broke out at a north London parking garage early Saturday morning.
With his wife Joyce on his arm, Tom Hennessy left Victoria Park in London, Ont. to complete his 100-mile walk to raise money for homeless veterans.
Emergency service workers in the Region of Waterloo kicked off a friendly competition Friday to see which team can donate the most blood by Labour Day.
Ontario police are trying to identify a man who they say was involved in an 'unwanted residential paving incident' in Puslinch, Ont.
Waterloo Region held its first in-person Canada Day celebrations since 2019 and there were several local events for residents to show off their Canadian pride.
All lanes of Highway 11 at Micro Tower Rd in the Pagwa area near North Bay are closed due to a tractor trailer collision.
A special ceremony was held today on Manitoulin island, where friends and loved ones of a fallen OPP constable gathered to rename a local marina in his honour.
Ottawa police say residents and visitors will continue to see an enhanced police presence in downtown Ottawa today, as the cleanup begins from Canada's 155th birthday party.
One person is deceased and another was taken to hospital with life-threatening injuries following a collision between a pickup truck and a motorcycle in Leamington on Canada Day.
Ontario drivers experienced some relief from record-setting prices at the pump on Friday as the province's gas tax cut came into effect.
Thousands packed downtown streets Friday for the first Canada Day celebration in two years, not restricted by pandemic measures.
Police in Gravenhurst say a man has died after being reported missing.
The spouse of the gunman in the Nova Scotia mass shooting will testify mid-July before a public inquiry, but she won't face direct questions from lawyers representing victims' families.
As Claire Mahaney-Lion dropped her son off at school this morning, she questioned the reasons behind scheduling a school day that would last fewer than two hours.
Saint John is having its dog day. The host city of the 2022 Memorial Cup is celebrating after the Saint John Sea Dogs bested the Hamilton Bulldogs 6-3 in front of a capacity crowd during Wednesday's championship game at TD Station.
Thousands of Calgarians gather for restriction-free Canada Day festivities with focus on reconciliation
Friday marked the first Canada Day in two years without any public health restrictions, which meant Calgarians were finally able to gather at several in-person events across the city.
Members of Calgary’s Vietnamese community gathered Friday at The Journey to Freedom Park to celebrate the unveiling of a meaningful monument.
The Flames lost their longtime organist Friday, when Willy Joosen died.
In-person Canada Day festivities made a return on Friday for the first time since the pandemic started, with residents bringing back old traditions and creating new ones.
A pro-choice rally was held at the Manitoba Legislative Building on Friday -- a week after Roe v. Wade was reversed by the United States Supreme Court.
Officers with the Manitoba RCMP have confirmed that a body was found in the Assiniboine River on Thursday.
Mounties in Chilliwack are warning the public about a string of recent catalytic converter thefts at a pair of local recreation areas.
It's been almost a year since Kabul's fall and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Among the many aspects of Afghan society threatened by the Taliban is the country's rich musical culture.
A former B.C. Mountie is facing discipline for communicating with the sister of a woman found dead in Okanagan Lake.
From drumming circles, charity runs, to a healing walk, Edmontonians found a way to celebrate their country or reflect on its past in a manner that felt right to them.
An explosive comeback will light up the Edmonton sky Friday night as Canada Day fireworks return to pre-pandemic proportions.
Jalen Collins recovered a fumble and scored on a 14-yard return in the fourth quarter to give the Edmonton Elks their first win of the season with a 29-25 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Friday.