Ontario's COVID-19 rates lower than expected due to public health measures: experts
Ontario's daily COVID-19 case counts are lower than what many experts had expected by now, and while they point to a number of factors for the relative relief, they say now is not the time to ease up on those measures.
For much of the summer, the province's top doctor warned of a September surge, followed by a bleak fall and winter. That has not materialized - yet - as the daily case counts remain under 1,000 and the graph of Ontario's seven-day average roughly shows a plateau since the beginning of September.
That's well under the worst-case scenario in Ontario's most recent modelling, which showed about 4,000 daily cases by now. Reality is more in line with the best-case scenario, in which cases would have steadily fallen since Sept. 1.
Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious disease physician at St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton, said hospitalizations and ICU admissions are also stable even without more restrictions being introduced - noting the proof-of-vaccination system only took effect a few days ago.
"There is a little bit of cautious optimism in that with society being more open, kids back to school, all of the things that we...would have concerns about leading to escalating transmission, we're not seeing," he said.
Ontario's vaccination campaign is certainly helping, he said, particularly the targeting of high-risk communities. About 86 per cent of eligible people have received at least one dose.
The province's chief medical officer of health, Dr. Kieran Moore, attributed the stable cases to Ontarians' adherence to public health measures.
"I think Ontarians are being prudent and cautious and have realized that this virus can take off at any given time if we let our guard down," he said.
"Sadly, we only have to look out west to see what can happen if we let our guard down with this Delta."
In Alberta, there are more than 10 times the number of active COVID-19 cases per capita than Ontario. Hospitals there are overwhelmed and the head of the Alberta Medical Association says major components of triage have already started.
Chagla noted that Alberta's vaccination rate is not substantially lower than Ontario's. What he sees as the major reason for Ontario's relatively lower numbers is the different approach to public health measures.
In July, Alberta lifted its restrictions, including gathering limits and a mask mandate, while in Ontario a few weeks later, the government announced that it would delay any further lifting of restrictions. Masks were still going to be required even when the province moved out of Step 3 of its reopening.
Masks certainly help, Chagla said, but it also matters what signal a government is sending, whether the pandemic is being treated as over.
"I think again, not getting to a point where there were complete decompression of all the rules, treating COVID as if it was normal. I think it again kept that foot on the gas to continue vaccinating even through the summer aggressively, using every last mile effort to get it out there," he said.
"Keeping some of these precautions on I think helps also with that behavioural piece about people still taking it seriously and not creating the opportunities for transmission."
Beate Sander, the co-chair of the province's modelling consensus table, said she would have expected to see more cases by now, but that doesn't mean a bump won't materialize in a few weeks.
"The situation is so very fragile," said Sander, a professor at the University of Toronto's Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
"It's stable, it's not exactly decreasing. So things could turn really quickly. You just need to look at Alberta, to look at how quickly things could change."
Sander said Ontario likely has not yet seen the rise in cases that schools will spark. In-person classes have been in session again for a little over two weeks, but Sander said because most of a child's contacts - such as their parents - are likely vaccinated, if a child gets COVID-19, it would take the virus longer to find someone else to infect.
"The rate of infection has been increasing quite a lot in the five-to-11-year-old kids," Sander said.
"Something is growing under the surface and because it's relatively small numbers compared to the overall population, it's going to take a while to go through."
The colder weather will likely also force more gatherings and activities indoors and drive transmission, the experts said.
"We're just right at that point where things could flip and we could be out of balance," Sander said. "We do not want to open up anything else."
Moore said he is still expecting a difficult winter.
"I have seen modelling where we have a significant rise in January and February after the Christmas holidays and that is disconcerting," he said.
A bit of optimism is good to have, Chagla said, but it's still important to continue doing everything that has led Ontario to this point.
"There's a lot of factors that probably say we're going to come out on the other side towards the late winter, early spring and start getting back to a true normal, but there's still variants...there's still a lot of things that could go wrong," he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2021.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Man sets self on fire outside New York court where Trump trial underway
A man set himself on fire on Friday outside the New York courthouse where Donald Trump's historic hush-money trial was taking place as jury selection wrapped up, but officials said he did not appear to have been targeting Trump.
BREAKING Sask. father found guilty of withholding daughter to prevent her from getting COVID-19 vaccine
Michael Gordon Jackson, a Saskatchewan man accused of abducting his daughter to prevent her from getting a COVID-19 vaccine, has been found guilty for contravention of a custody order.
She set out to find a husband in a year. Then she matched with a guy on a dating app on the other side of the world
Scottish comedian Samantha Hannah was working on a comedy show about finding a husband when Toby Hunter came into her life. What happened next surprised them both.
Mandisa, Grammy award-winning 'American Idol' alum, dead at 47
Soulful gospel artist Mandisa, a Grammy-winning singer who got her start as a contestant on 'American Idol' in 2006, has died, according to a statement on her verified social media. She was 47.
'It could be catastrophic': Woman says natural supplement contained hidden painkiller drug
A Manitoba woman thought she found a miracle natural supplement, but said a hidden ingredient wreaked havoc on her health.
Young people 'tortured' if stolen vehicle operations fail, Montreal police tell MPs
One day after a Montreal police officer fired gunshots at a suspect in a stolen vehicle, senior officers were telling parliamentarians that organized crime groups are recruiting people as young as 15 in the city to steal cars so that they can be shipped overseas.
The Body Shop Canada explores sale as demand outpaces inventory: court filing
The Body Shop Canada is exploring a sale as it struggles to get its hands on enough inventory to keep up with "robust" sales after announcing it would file for creditor protection and close 33 stores.
Vicious attack on a dog ends with charges for northern Ont. suspect
Police in Sault Ste. Marie charged a 22-year-old man with animal cruelty following an attack on a dog Thursday morning.
On federal budget, Macklem says 'fiscal track has not changed significantly'
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says Canada's fiscal position has 'not changed significantly' following the release of the federal government's budget.